Iraq mulls sovereign oil-hedging deal

Baghdad in very early stages of exploring a hedge for as much as a quarter of either its crude production

Iraq is mulling an oil hedging programme to lock in prices for future crude sales, potentially topping a similar deal run by Mexico that is considered the largest energy trade in Wall Street.

The Middle Eastern nation is in the very early stages of exploring a hedge for as much as a quarter of either its crude production or exports, Falah Al Amri, the head of Iraq’s state oil-marketing company, known as SOMO, said in an interview in London.

“We will not rush. This is a long process,” Al Amri said. “We must make sure we do not lose money. You know the Iraqi parliament, it would not accept that.”

If Iraq goes ahead, that would require contracts giving price protection to about 400 million barrels a year of crude, according to Bloomberg calculations. That would be significantly larger than the Mexican oil hedge, run by the country’s finance ministry, which uses options contracts to cover about 250 million barrels a year. Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil producer also known as Pemex, this year also hedged its output, an additional 100 million barrels.

Although oil common in the hedging is private sector, for example by US shale producers to lock in revenues and airlines to guarantee a maximum price for their jet fuel, they are rare among oil-producing countries. On top of Mexico, only a handful of other nations have publicly disclosed hedging programmes, including Ecuador and Ghana.

Political risk

Oil-producing countries face a number of obstacles to hedge. Mexico has spent on average $1 billion (Dh3.67 billion) a year buying options contracts that give it the right, but not the obligation, to sell at a predetermined price. The size of the transaction could roil the market, sending prices lower. Any losses could carry a heavy political price.

Oil traders and bankers who monitor the Mexican oil hedge have said in the past the programme contributed to push oil prices lower at least in 2008 and 2014.