Replacing Obamacare: A major GOP flop

For legislation that touched on one-fifth of US economy, Republicans should have aggressively turned the tide of public support in their favour

lot has happened since the then Republican presidential candidate in the United States, Donald Trump, announced to a crowd of cheering supporters on October 25, 2016: “My first day in office, I am going to ask Congress to put a bill on my desk, getting rid of this disastrous law and replacing it with reforms that expand choice, freedom, affordability. You’re going to have such great health care at a tiny fraction of the cost. And it’s going to be so easy.” Well, here we are. All Americans are reminded that everything easy to do in Washington has already been done.

By any measure, the Republican effort at repeal and replace has been a debacle. GOP messaging was off, votes were not secured and intra-party fighting over what to include in the Republican health care bill never ceased. The good news is repeal and replace is not over, but things will have to get a lot worse for voters and families before there is much incentive for a relaunch.

Anyway, for years, Republicans in Congress passed one measure after the next calling for the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. But when it came time to actually roll back years of harmful health-care policy and restore market-based coverage, Americans found themselves divided — unable to compromise. They were unable to govern.

So, what lessons can they learn from the repeal-and-replace train wreck?

Success in politics is often dependent on managing expectations. We cannot fall into the classic trap of overpromising and underdelivering. Democrats took 14 months to pass Obamacare with 60 senators most of the time, but Republicans swore to deliver on the party’s biggest campaign promise with 52 senators in just a few months. The president’s input needs to be informed and consistent. Just a month after praising the House health care bill as a “great plan” that was “very, very incredibly well-crafted”, President Trump gave the Democrats and their allies in the media all the fuel they could ever ask for by calling that same bill “mean”.

Don’t forget to convince the voters of why they should support what you are doing. This was a big issue, there should have been a big sales campaign. For legislation that touched on roughly one-fifth of the US economy, the GOP should have launched a major public affairs operation to turn the tide of public support in their favour. And that meant more than a few advertisements on Fox News. The fact is, a slogan — “repeal and replace” — is no substitute for a plan.

These lessons are not new and, maybe, therein lies a lesson. Republicans should have treated repeal and replace like a major campaign. But now, they can’t just shrug and pretend that nothing happened.

Obamacare may still be the law of the land, but the push for repeal and replace isn’t necessarily over. Just as former Republican National Committee chairman Haley Barbour told me last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Republican from Kentucky) will “continue to try to improve the healthcare reform bill and return to it when he thinks he has the votes.” And that is exactly what is happening.

Members of Congress will soon head home and, starting in August, September and October, their constituents’ deductibles will begin going through the roof. Their premiums will spike. If we thought Democratic protesters were cause for alarm, imagine how outraged actual Republicans will be when they show up at town halls.

Republicans need to learn from this — and fast. Washington Post.

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