After Mosul, Daesh digs in for guerrilla warfare
What comes next may be a more complex and daunting challenge for Iraqi security forces
Daesh militants began reinventing themselves months before USbacked Iraqi forces ended their three-year reign of terror in Mosul, putting aside the dream of a so-called caliphate and preparing the ground for a different fight.
Intelligence and local officials said that, a few months ago, they noticed a growing stream of commanders and fighters flowing out of the city to the Hamrin mountains in northeast Iraq which offer hideouts and access to four Iraqi provinces.
Some were intercepted but many evaded security forces and began setting up bases for their new operations.
What comes next may be a more complex and daunting challenge for Iraqi security forces once they finish celebrating a hard-won victory in Mosul, the terrorists’ biggest stronghold.
Intelligence and security officials are bracing for the kind of devastating insurgency Al Qaida waged following the 2003 US-led invasion, pushing Iraq into a sectarian civil war which peaked in 2006-2007.
“They are digging in. They have easy access to the capital,” Lahur Talabany, a top Kurdish counter-terrorism official, told Reuters. As part of the US-led coalition, he is at the forefront of efforts to eliminate Daesh. “I believe we have tougher days coming.”
Some Iraqi Daesh fighters have roots dating back to Al Qaida’s campaign of car and suicide bombs that exploded by the dozens each day and succeeded in fuelling a sectarian bloodbath in Iraq, a major oil producer and key US ally.
When a US-funded tribal initiative crushed Al Qaida, the hard core regrouped in the desert between Iraq and Syria. They reappeared with a new terrorist brand that took world by surprise: Daesh.
Shortly after its lightning sweep through Mosul, the group outdid Al Qaida’s brutality, carrying out mass beheadings and executions as it imposed its ultra-hardline ideology.
Unlike Al Qaida, it seized a third of Iraqi territory, gaining knowledge of land that could come in handy as it hits back at Iraqi security forces. the
Former intelligence agents
Former Iraq intelligence officers who served under Saddam Hussain joined forces with Daesh in an alliance of convenience. These shrewd military strategists from his Baath Party are expected to be the new generation of Daesh leaders, Talabany and other security officials said.
Instead of trying to create a so-called ‘caliphate’, a concept which attracted recruits from disaffected fellow Sunnis, Daesh leaders will focus on far less predictable guerrilla warfare, Iraqi and Kurdish security officials said.
Iraqi forces have come a long way since they collapsed in the face of the Daesh advance in 2014, throwing down their weapons and removing their military uniforms in panic.