Egypt growth expected to hit 4% in fiscal year

Economy has struggled since a 2011 uprising that scared off tourists, foreign investors

Egypt’s economy is expected to grow by 4 per cent in the fiscal year that has just begun, a Reuters poll showed, in line with government forecasts, before picking up to 4.3 per cent in 2018-19.

The poll of 15 economists also forecast 3.5 per cent growth in the fiscal year just ended once the numbers are reported, lower than the government’s 3.8-4.0 per cent view. But that is a slight upgrade from 3.3 per cent in the previous poll in April.

GDP growth

Earlier this week, Planning Minister Hala Al Saeed told a news conference that the GDP growth rate for the 2016-2017 fiscal year that ended in June would not fall below 4 per cent.

Egypt’s economy has struggled since a 2011 uprising that scared off tourists and foreign investors. Foreign reserves have dried up and President Abdul Fattah Al Sissi is under pressure to make difficult economic reforms aimed at reviving the economy that may prove hard to balance with public maintaining support.

Before 2011, the economy was growing by about 7 per cent annually. Egypt is hoping a $12 billion (Dh44 billion) three-year International Monetary Fund programme it began last year, which includes subsidy cuts and tax hikes, will put the economy back on track. The poll’s median forecast for annual core inflation was 17.2 per cent for the current fiscal year, up from a previous forecast of 13.0 per cent.