Riyadh moving fast to reverse Iran’s gains

OFFICIALS: MEDDLING IN ARAB WORLD WILL NO LONGER BE TOLERATED

The risk of a direct clash between Saudi Arabia and Iran whose calculations had long been that shadow wars through proxies were safer than facing up directly, is becoming more possible by the day.

Riyadh, under the ambitious Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, is taking action against what many Arab states see as an Iranian takeover of essential corners of the Sunni Arab world.

The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has flared up more recently in the postSaddam years, which left the centre of the region deeply destabilised.

“Saddam was the Sunni bulwark,” said a Lebanese politician who advised the former Iraqi leader. “That is only now being understood by the Saudis, who are trying to position themselves in his wake, all these years later.”

“While they thought the US was doing their bidding, it was actually enabling an Iranian takeover. This is now almost complete. So they are right to worry. So is everyone.Things have changed in the Middle East,” a senior Saudi official who has left the kingdom in the past year said adding that they are now acting on it.

In the past year, Iranbacked forces have propped up Bashar Al Assad’s army in Syria, and allied with the Iraqi army and paramilitaries fighting with it.

It has done so mainly through the use of proxies, which have played essential roles in most battles — including the Iraqi recapture of Kirkuk — and have helped clear land across central Iraq and much of Syria that has become strategically vital.

Iran now all but controls a land corridor that runs from Tehran to Tartous in Syria, on the Mediterranean coast, giving it access to a seaport a long way to its west, and far from the heavily patrolled waters of the Arabian Gulf.

The route passes through the centre of Iraq, and Syria, skirting the Lebanese border and what were some of the most active areas of the Syrian civil war, which have been returned to regime control. “They are two months from finishing this,” said a senior regional intelligence official.

“This changes things. It gives them an open supply line to move whatever they want. And it gives them strategic depth. It is a big deal.”

Among all its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon has been the most valuable – in Syria especially.

The Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has taken an active interest in the Saudi war in Yemen, which has pitched the kingdom’s US-armed military against Iran-backed Al Houthi militias.

Change in approach

Riyadh believes that Hezbollah members have been instrumental in arming and training Al Houthis, and claims that a ballistic missile that was shot down over Riyadh airport on the night that Hariri quit, was helped on its way by Hezbollah members.

Saudi leaders had long placed faith in Hariri to stand up to Hezbollah and assert the authority of state institutions over its parallel political and military structure in Lebanon, but it seems that they have opted for a different way forward, although it remains to be seen just what that could look like.

Some have speculated that Israel could strike Hezbollah and ignite a fresh war.

Saddam was the Sunni bulwark. That is only now being understood by the Saudis, who are trying to position themselves in his wake, all these years later.” A Lebanese politician who advised the former Iraqi leader