Zimbabwe and the shift to a China-led order

As more power moves to the East, the ability of the ‘free world’ to bully tyrants with sanctions, embargoes or the threat of invasion is receding

ne of the minor successes of my time as foreign secretary was that I managed never to meet Robert Mugabe, despite having to sit only a few feet away from him at the United Nations General Assembly. A predecessor, Jack Straw, was severely embarrassed after shaking his hand and was reduced to the much-derided excuse that it had happened in a darkened room. Since I was required to meet many of the world’s despotic, power-crazed autocrats, giving Mugabe a miss was a relief.

Mugabe has demonstrated once again the truth that while the power of government to do good is limited, its ability to cause harm is infinite, bringing poverty and hyper-inflation to a country rich in natural resources and human talent. When he is finally dragged from the presidency, Zimbabweans will be entitled to a moment of hope — that their country can be led in a different way, consistent with democracy, freedom and prosperity.

Many of the bravest of them have struggled for that for decades. The United Kingdom can help them. We have long had ready a worked out plan to give major aid once the country is free of corruption, embezzlement and tyranny. Yet, we have to recognise that our own efforts to support a more democratic Zimbabwe will be based on hopes rather than decisive influence, and that there, and in many other countries, there are powerful forces who either tolerate authoritarian leadership or seek it. The most likely successor to Mugabe, Emmerson Mnangagwa, has played a full part in the incompetent and bloodsoaked story of the last 37 years.

Significantly, before the military chiefs ordered the tanks to roll last week, it was from Beijing that they apparently sought a green light, rather than London or Washington. If so, the Chinese leadership gave the right answer, but it is a sign that external power over African affairs is steadily moving in their direction and away from the West. All over Africa, there are foreign ministries, presidential palaces and infrastructure built with help from China.

There is nothing wrong with that in principle, except that such aid comes with few qualms about poor governance, absence of democracy and serious violations of human rights. The age in which westerners could assume that more countries would naturally adopt systems of government similar to their own is over, and the age in which they could require some of them to do so is coming to an end as well. Turkey is a key example of this, moving in just a few years from seeking to demonstrate the standards of a European democracy to caring little about the remonstrations of the West as authoritarianism takes hold. And after Iraq and Afghanistan, there is little chance of the United States invading many other places to build a freely governed nation from a scratch.

Lectures of westerners

The Chinese model of one-party state-led capitalism, with tight ideological control and the use of the new digital economy to enforce citizens’ loyalty, is ready for export to other nations. What is more, those nations can avail themselves of it without having to bow to the lectures of westerners about governance, rights and debt repayments. The way will be open to dictators breathing more easily.

In a quarter of a century, we will have gone from US presidents being messianic about spreading democracy, to a re-born Communism ready to grow again and a US president not exactly motivated by the march of freedom. This does not mean that all is lost.

WIth growing discord within western electorates, our trust even in our own democratic institutions is diminishing.

So what do we do? Of course, we have to strengthen our ability to protect ourselves from both military and cyber attack. Crucially, however, a reduced ability to lead by muscle and force means we have to lead all the more by the power of example. That means that if others reduce their standards of respect for human rights, we must refuse to do so. Most importantly, we have to renew the health of our own democracies. It will need a radical change to the regulation of social media, forbidding political advertising and foreign influence, and requiring greater balance and diversity in the news. The slow-motion fall of Mugabe, then, is not just a satisfying conclusion to an agony in a faraway country. It will be another test of which ideas are gaining ground in a gathering struggle — one in which we will need to reform ourselves to win. William Hague is the former UK foreign secretary and a former leader of the Conservative Party.