Will a revised Iran deal appease Trump?

European nations believe placating US president is the only way to salvage the deal

ANALYSIS

Trump administration negotiators have a tough sales job as they pressure European allies to accept new restrictions to “fix” the Iran nuclear deal: Even if the Europeans agree, President Donald Trump may blow up the deal anyway.

Given a mid-May deadline by Trump, US negotiators are working with Britain, France and Germany on a followon pact that would address Trump’s three major complaints.

First, Trump wants to penalise Iran for ballistic missiles, which weren’t part of the original deal.

The US president also wants to expand access for international nuclear inspectors and prolong the limits on Iran’s nuclear activity, currently scheduled to expire in several years.

Brian Hook, the State Department policy chief who’s running the negotiations, said if there’s no agreement by May, Trump will certainly withdraw.

The European nations only begrudgingly agreed after it became clear that placating the US president was the only way to salvage the deal former President Barack Obama struck with Iran and world powers.

It’s far from clear that the US and the Europeans can reach agreement anyway. In talks in European capitals, Hook’s team and the Europeans have been haggling over complex sticking points such as what range of ballistic missiles should be penalised — and how.

According to one outside adviser briefed on the status of the talks, the negotiating team is currently working on a double-pronged “fix” that would separate Iran’s missiles into two categories: nuclearcapable long-range, intercontinental ballistic missiles that can hit Europe, and shorterrange projectiles that could hit US allies and friends, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates as well as American military assets.

Sanctions could be imposed for both, but those for long-range missiles would likely be harsher and kick in more automatically if Iran tested or transferred them.

Those sanctions could also target Iranian entities that were exempted from penalties under the nuclear deal.

The Iran deal’s critics argue the restrictions must cover both long- and mediumrange missile tests and transfers, and that the penalties for both should be just as tough.

They also want all nuclearcapable missiles to be treated as part of Iran’s banned nuclear programme, rather than dealt with separately.

So far, Britain, France and Germany have agreed “in principle” to punish Tehran for its long-range missiles.