Turkey playing risky game in north Syria
Attempts to build on victory in volatile Afrin may embroil Ankara in guerilla war with Kurds
After two months of uncertain fighting, Turkey appears suddenly to be riding high in its military campaign to take control of a larger piece of northern Syria.
Along the border, the artillery guns and fighter jets that until recently pounded the low mountains have fallen silent since Turkish forces captured Afrin last weekend.
The victory has been widely celebrated in Turkey and has further emboldened President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has vowed to take his campaign across northern Syria and even into Iraq.
Yet the road ahead for Turkey in Syria is uncertain and fraught with risks.
The deepening inroads of Turkey and its allies have been tolerated so far by the two powers that control Syria’s airspace, Russia and the US. But Turkey may yet meet resistance if it pushes much farther.
There is every risk that Turkey, which has a less than illustrious history dealing with its Kurdish population, could find itself embroiled in a guerrilla war in Syria, an extension of its decades-old battle against the Kurdish insurgency at home led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.
“Afrin is not a region easy to command for Turkey,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director in Turkey of the German Marshall Fund of the US. “Not only is the majority of the population there Kurdish, but an important part of the population is sympathetic to the PKK.”
Even Turks’ euphoria surrounding their sudden win in Afrin was quickly tempered by the messy aftermath of that battle. No sooner had Turkey’s proxies on the ground, the Free Syrian Army, captured Afrin city than social media lit up with video and messages depicting looting by its fighters.
The environment remains volatile. A booby trap planted in Afrin killed seven civilians and four Free Syrian Army soldiers last week. A Syrian journalist was among those killed, the Committee to Protect Journalists reported.
Yet the fall of Afrin has made it clear that Turkey and its allies will have to be reckoned with in whatever negotiation might eventually end the seven-year-old conflict.
Undeniable force
“Turkey and the FSA have become an undeniable force in Syria,” Unluhisarcikli said, referring to the Free Syrian Army. The deepening engagement places Turkey in the middle of the fight between Bashar Al Assad’s regime, who is backed by Russia, and the rebel groups determined to remove him from power.
Some of those rebel groups are supported by the US, but are bitterly opposed to Turkey and its proxies.
Afrin’s capture changes things on the ground. It opens a link between parts of northern Syria, where Turkish forces maintain a presence, and the rebel-held Idlib, where Turkey has been steadily expanding its presence.