Regime troops surround Douma as Ghouta rebels make last stand
IF JAISH AL ISLAM GOES TO IDLIB, IT WILL BE ITS END, AS ITS FIGHTERS ARE MOSTLY FROM DOUMA
Syrian regime forces have massed around the last rebel-held town in the Eastern Ghouta area, after the rebels were reportedly given a deadline to leave. There were reports that regime troops were preparing for a “huge” operation in Douma, which is controlled by Jaish Al Islam. Several opposition activists have said that the Russians have given the Jaish Al Islam 48 hours as of early Tuesday to leave Douma for northern Syria or face an all-out offensive.
Three years ago, Jaish Al Islam, one of Syria’s most powerful armed opposition groups, held a massive military parade that included thousands of opposition fighters marching in formation and a striking display of tanks and armoured vehicles at the doors of the Syrian capital.
The parade, held in the town of Douma in the spring of 2015, demonstrated the Saudi-backed group’s growing clout in the Eastern Ghouta suburbs, which for years were seen as a potential launch pad for a ground attack on Damascus, seat of Bashar Al Assad’s power.
The Jaish Al Islam now stands alone in Eastern Ghouta, its fighters facing a stark choice: Surrender or die.
Bleak future
Haitham Bakkar, a Doumabased opposition activist, said the situation in Douma is very tense because it is unclear what will happen next. He said it was a question of existence for the Jaish Al Islam fighters, most of whom are from Douma. “If the Jaish Al Islam goes to northern Syria it will be its end,” he said.
Douma, on the northeastern edge of Damascus, is the last rebel holdout in the Eastern Ghouta region after thousands of fighters from the Ahrar Al Sham and Faylaq Al Rahman groups ceded their towns to government control under a deal brokered by Russia, a key ally of Al Assad.
For days, their fighters have been exiting from the southernmost pockets of Eastern Ghouta, leaving in a fleet of buses, including the lime-green municipal buses that have come to symbolise defeat for the Syrian opposition as the government takes back control of cities around the country.
Rebels who have left Eastern Ghouta so far have all gone to Idlib, an insurgent-held region dominated by Al Qaida-affiliated fighters near the Turkish border, where they either have a presence or good relations with Turkey.
By contrast, the Jaish Al Islam is home-grown and has no other strongholds in the country.
“Jaish Al Islam is a very local phenomenon, emerging from the specific social fabric and Salafi school of thought of the Damascus countryside,” said Faysal Itani, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council. “More precisely, Jaish Al Islam is a creature of Douma, and I don’t know how it would survive outside it,” especially in Idlib, where there is rebel rivalry, he said.
No place to go
It is a resounding defeat for the powerful group that once briefly overran parts of Damascus and showered the capital with mortar shells.
Thousands of Jaish Al Islam fighters — some estimates say around 10,000 — are now encircled in Douma, a densely populated town with a huge number of civilians who are terrified of what they see as a looming army offensive if the rebels don’t exit.
One resident said there are currently about 150,000 civilians in Douma, many of them internally displaced from other towns in Eastern Ghouta.
This civilian pressure is weighing on the group as it negotiates with the government and its Russian backers.
But the group’s military spokesman, Hamza Bayraqdar, denied the reports and said Jaish Al Islam fighters would never leave, describing the evacuations to the north as forced displacement.
“We are negotiating to stay, not to depart,” he told Al Arabiya TV on Tuesday. “The people who will leave eastern Ghouta will never dream of returning to their homes.”
The group has no good choices. Going to Idlib would put its fighters in an area dominated by Al Qaida, against whom it has fought pitched battles in the past.
The Britain-based Observatory reported this week that the Russians rejected a request by some Jaish Al Islam members to head to the southern province of Daraa. Such a move would bring the militants close to the Jordanian border, from where they would likely get assistance from Saudi Arabia.