Brexit is all but one year away

No one knows what will happen on March 29, 2019, — and that is the crux of this chapter on divorce

Ayear from now, Britons will wake up to a new relationship with the European Union and the rest of the world — and as it stands now, 365 days away from Brexit, no one can say for sure what March 29, 2019 will bring. Those who have campaigned long and noisily for an end to the United Kingdom’s four-decade relationship with Brussels will say that it is a brave new dawn, where Britain will take back control of its affairs and can look to make its own way in the world. And those who remain Europhiles and feel jilted by this abrupt divorce will point to it as a dark day in history, one where xenophobia and Britannic jingoism won over common sense.

The truth is that with one year to go, no one in the UK — from Prime Minister Theresa May down to the Polish plumber in Tooting Bec or a sheep farmer on the Shetland Isles — knows exactly how the democratic decision to leave the EU will work out. And that is the crux of this entire chapter.

Yes, there are negotiations underway, but these are advancing at a snail’s pace, where the agreed text is still being interpreted by both sides as meaning other than the words on the page. There remains uncertainty too over what exactly Brexit will bring to those living on the island of Ireland sharing the UK’s only land border with the rest of Europe.

The difficulty is that a year from now, there can be no re-imposition of customs and security checks — impediments to the hardwon peace agreement that ended three decades of political and sectarian strike that claimed more than 3,600 lives.

There is a danger too that unless these negotiations are wrapped up by the end of October, time will simply run out on the prospect of a negotiated departure, meaning that chaos and World Trade Organisation rules will suddenly and harshly apply between the UK and the EU.

That is a scenario that must be avoided, but it is also one that seems all the more possible, given the divisions that exist with the cabinet of May and her Conservative party.

If there is one thing that riles international stock, currency and bond markets, it is the prospect of uncertainty. And right now, with a year to go, the only thing that can be written for sure is that uncertainty is the key word.