Conflicting signals
TRUMP’S CONFUSING REMARKS HAVE ALARMED ARAB LEADERS WHO FEAR IT WILL CREATE A VACUUM THAT WILL BE FILLED BY IRAN
Trump’s remarks on Syria pullout have alarmed Arabs |
There has been much speculation about what US President Donald Trump meant when he told a rally in Ohio on Thursday that the US would be “coming out of Syria very soon”.
This is actually the opposite of what he has done since becoming president last year. He actually criticised former President Barack Obama over Syria, accusing him of giving Daesh free range to operate. He also went after Obama for “not caring” to eliminate Syrian President Bashar Al Assad who Trump described as a “mass murderer”.
In April 2017 Trump ordered a strike on a Syrian base after a chemical gas attack in Khan Shaikhoun killed 87 people, leading many people to believe the US had taken a decision to confront Russia and Iran — Al Assad’s chief allies. In January, Trump signed off in which then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson — who has since been sacked — laid out the new strategy and declared “it is vital for US to remain engaged in Syria.”
But by mid- February, Trump was telling his top aides in meetings that as soon as victory can be declared against Daesh, he wanted American troops out of Syria, said the officials.
Alarm bells went off at the State Department and the Pentagon, where officials have been planning for a gradual, methodical shift from a military- led operation to a diplomatic mission to start rebuilding basic infrastructure like roads and sewers in the war- wracked country.
But on Friday, Trump froze $ 200 million earmarked for Syrian recovery efforts.
We believe US troops should stay for at least the midterm, if not the long- term. Iran, through proxy militias, will establish an overland supply route that leads from Beirut through Syria and Iraq, to Tehran.”
Immediate beneficiaries
If the US indeed pulls out, Iran and Daesh would be the immediate beneficiaries.
“US withdrawal will be a major historic miscalculation, exact high costs for the US and the region and the costs would far outweigh the benefits. It will create a vacuum that will be filled by Iran, therefore enhancing the possibility of an Iranian- Israeli showdown,” Murhaf Jouejati, a professor of International Relations at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy, told Gulf News.
A prime example of this was the US troop pullout from Iraq, under the administration of Barack Obama. Not only did the war, under his predecessor, George W. Bush, ravage the country and upend the Baath Party there, it opened the door to Iranian intervention.
The US troop presence at least kept Iran partially at bay, but when the US pulled out most of its troops under Obama, it sent a message to Iran that Iraq was up for grabs. It quickly swooped in, filling the parliament with pro- Iranian candidates and began establishing Shiite militias which began to intimidate and oppress Iraq’s minority Sunni population.
This in turn created the ingredients for the formation of Daesh which wreaked havoc on the country in 2014 where it quickly carved out its so- called “caliphate” in western Iraq and eastern Syria. A US pull- out from Syria will not only allow Iran to gain the upper hand but also give Daesh the space to regroup which would be a disaster for the region and also the world.
Already Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman has said such a move would be a mistake.
Mohammad, currently on a three- week visit to the US, told Time magazine the US should stay if not in the long- term at least in the midterm.
Iran, through proxy militias and regional allies, will establish an overland supply route that leads from Beirut through Syria and Iraq to Tehran, he warned.
The so- called “Shiite Cres-
Mohammad Bin Salman ( left) | Saudi Crown Prince
cent” would give Iran a greater foothold in a tumultuous region through a string of allies.
Arab nations have long complained of Iranian meddling in the Arab world and currently Iran has proxy militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Saudi Arabia entered the Yemeni war in 2015 in response to Iran’s backing of Al Houthi militants there which overthrew the internationally- recognised government.
Three years have passed since then, but Saudi Arabia says it will remain engaged in Yemen in what is calls a “war of necessity”.
Riyadh wants Trump, a supposed “good friend” of the Saudis, to take its concerns more seriously and back it up with actions, not words. “Not only would a troop pull- out hurt America’s Gulf allies, it will further confirm that the US has acquiesced to Russia,” Jouejati said.