GOP faces litmus test in midterm polls
THERE ARE OMINOUS SIGNS REPUBLICANS ARE UP AGAINST A DEMOCRATIC WAVE
US Republicans are bracing for their toughest reelection battles in years this November, whipsawed by President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, his propensity to throw the party off message, and exceptional Democratic enthusiasm, experts say.
And Republicans warn that the challenge will grow even tougher should the American leader follow through on his latest economic bluster: threats to impose $150 billion worth of tariffs aimed at China.
Under pressure to retain control of Congress in upcoming midterm elections, several Republicans cringe at prospects of a protracted trade war between the world’s two largest economies slowing US growth and wiping out gains from Trump’s tax cut law.
Trump’s tariffs could be seen as fulfilling a campaign pledge to protect American industries hammered by globalisation. But a trade standoff could drown out his party’s message that tax cuts are delivering prosperity, further imperilling Republicans seeking re-election.
“A trade war that diminishes those gains would be a grievous mistake, and increase the headwinds GOP candidates face in November to gale force,” Michael Steel, a former senior aide to Republican House speaker John Boehner and now managing director of consultancy Hamilton Place Strategies, told AFP.
The international spat has pummeled global markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling 2.3 per cent Friday.
Some Republican lawmakers have bluntly opposed their president’s trade tiff, expressing fear that Chinese retaliatory duties would hurt several agriculture-dependent states that backed Trump in 2016.
Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska branded the tariff threats “nuts,” while Iowa’s Senator Joni Ernst pleaded for the president to “reconsider”.
Just how serious an impact could all this have on an election still seven months away is unclear. But analysts are already warning of an economic hit.
A trade war with prohibitively high tariffs on a wide range of products would cut 3.5 per cent from US GDP, according to a recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The latest ominous sign that Republicans are up against a Democratic wave: respected political forecasters The Cook Political Report on Friday shifted 13 House races toward Democrats.
Wide voter enthusiasm gap
The party of liberals like Senator Elizabeth Warren and moderates like Montana Governor Steve Bullock is enjoying a “wide voter enthusiasm gap” over Republicans, and young voters — Trump’s weakest age segment — are expressing increased interest in casting ballots, wrote Cook political analyst David Wasserman.
The number of House Republican retirements is also outpacing Democrats by two to one, and several of those red seats risk flipping to the opposition.
All 435 House seats are up for grabs in November. Democrats need to gain 24 seats to retake the chamber’s majority.
The map is more favourable for Republicans in the Senate. About a third of the chamber’s 100 seats are being contested, including 10 held by Democrats from states Trump carried in 2016.