Iran has few options to avenge Syria strikes

After a second suspected Israeli strike killing Iranian forces in Syria, the Islamic Republic has few ways to retaliate as its leaders wrestle with both unrest at home and the prospect of its nuclear deal collapsing abroad.

Here’s a look at the challenges confronting Iran as it weighs its response.

Iranian military limits

While Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the April 9 Israeli attack on Iranian base in Syria’s Homs province “a crime” and other officials threatened revenge, there are significant limits to Iran’s conventional military forces.

Iran’s air force, in particular, has suffered since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The backbone of its air power remains prerevolution American F-4s, F-5s and F-14s, with a mix of other Soviet, French and ageing aircraft. There is recent precedent for Iran launching ballistic missiles to avenge attacks. But Israel, in cooperation with the US, has developed a multi-layer system of missile defence that could protect it against incoming Iranian fire.

Nuclear deal

A missile attack on Israel would draw an immediate response from the West, in particular the US. Any military action would further isolate Iran as Trump faces a self-imposed May 12 deadline to decide what to do about the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Proxy problems

Iran could fall back on its regional militant allies or proxies to launch an attack, a strategy it has used with great success after its ruinous 1980s war with Iraq. Iran’s greatest proxy achievement is Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and political organisation. Iran could retaliate through Hezbollah, but the group has been battered in the Syrian war. Hezbollah also wants to further integrate into local Lebanese politics as the nation votes on Sunday for a new parliament for the first time in nine years. Launching a new war could endanger its political support base.