Euphoria now in Koreas, but disputes await
The only way to find out Kim’s plans will be to move forward cautiously, listening to his words but also watching his actions
For the first time ever a North Korean leader has set foot in South Korea. Not only did Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in seem to get on well, but they agreed on a broad agenda for the next year. The public euphoria we are seeing in South Korea is entirely understandable. But there are reasons to be very sceptical that lasting peace is on the table. For one thing, this is only the first of three summits. Kim will meet US president Donald Trump soon and President Xi Jinping of China will visit him in Pyongyang immediately after that. It is the cumulative impact of all three meetings that determines what happens next. Friday’s joint statement — the Panmunjom Declaration — contains three lumps the White House will find difficult to swallow.
First, the two Koreas “affirmed the principle of determining the destiny of the Korean nation on their own accord”. This is a standard North Korean formulation that excludes participation by the US in solving the problems of the peninsula. It tends to annoy Washington.
Secondly, they “agreed to actively implement the projects previously agreed in the 2007 October 4 Declaration” — a document that includes several ambitious economic cooperation projects. But since then the UN Security Council has imposed sanctions on North Korea, and since most of these projects would violate those sanctions, that flies in the face of Trump’s declared intention to maintain pressure on North
Korea.
Thirdly, the two nations
“confirmed the common goal of realising, through complete denuclearisation, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula”.
That sounds uncontroversial enough but the language echoes a North Korean formulation by which “denuclearisation” means not only the surrender of North Korea’s arsenal but also the elimination of the possibility of a nuclear strike on the peninsula by others, principally the US, because US nuclear delivery systems have global reach. “Denuclearisation” in this sense would be almost impossible to achieve.
North Korea has cheated on past agreements, sometimes even before the ink was dry. We know Kim’s father could not be trusted. We do not know whether we can trust Kim himself.
It is quite possible that the North Koreans are simply trying to split South Korea from the US and weaken the enforcement of sanctions, which are causing them real headaches. Perhaps Kim is playing on Moon’s craving for detente to persuade him to renew the aid his predecessors cut. Perhaps Kim has decided to end his confrontation with the South and the international community, and is prepared to do a deal. The only way to find out will be to move forward cautiously, listening to his words but also watching his actions, hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. If this is a genuine olive branch it would be a pity to throw it back at him. ■ John Everard was the British ambassador to North Korea from 2006 to 2008.