UK local polls could shock Westminster

Tory losses would send the message that council services must be protected, and that Britain demands an end to austerity

The streets of London are not ablaze with posters or other signs there are local elections on this week, as in 150 councils around the United Kingdom. Yet in a surprisingly optimistic report just out, Hansard [the official parliamentary report] says intention to vote is at an all-time high of 62 per cent, with voter engagement with politics higher than ever. But that determination to vote may be stymied by an alarming fall in voter registration. According to Equifax analysis, 197 local authorities saw a drop in the last year: Newcastle down 7 per cent, Mole Valley down 5 per cent.

The shift to individual voter registration risked knocking out the young, students no longer registered by universities, renters and ethnic minorities. The voter ID pilot this week will show whether yet another gerrymander in the voting system deters those — more likely to be Labour — arriving at polling stations without passports or driving licences.

People may be more politically engaged, but Hansard doesn’t find them enthusiastic: satisfaction with the system of governing Britain is down seven points to 29 per cent. So it might be rage, not optimism, that drives more people to vote, emotions stirred by the great Brexit rift and by austerity biting. Determination to vote against Prime Minister Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn may be what drives them to the polls: our monstrous election system confronts voters with a harsher binary choice than for many years — and both parties are split.

People vote in locals on national politics, sadly less on the quality of their local council. The very best and worst councils are swept in and out by the state of politics at Westminster, a brutal fact for the undervalued aeons of time councillors give, taking more brickbats than bravos. The iron law says governments lose council seats midterm, oppositions surge.

This time, blame properly belongs to Westminster. No surprise that Labour is predicted to gain, with a 40 per cent council funding cut by Tory chancellors demanding “more for less”, devolving the axe so councillors do the dirty work of austerity. As Prof Tony Travers points out, newly arrived Momentum councillors will confront the same miserable choices with little leeway: already cut to the bone, do they cut child protection or old people’s care? The wonder is that anyone stands as a councillor at all when political choice has been so drained by the savagery of the cuts. It’s only mildly comical that the Tory shires are first to collapse, Northamptonshire first with others hot on their heels.

To Westminster, locals are just an indicator of the state of the parties. Is May doing badly or very badly? Is the Corbyn tide powerful enough to wash up to the steps of No 10? Nuffield College’s Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, local election gurus, predict Labour to win 200 seats, Tories to lose 75, Lib Dems to gain 30. We wait to see what damage Windrush does the Tories, with 75 per cent of ethnic minority voters expected to vote Labour. Or what harm Labour’s inexplicable failure to combat anti-Semitism does. Anyone venturing a guess is a fool: wise commentators have thrown away their crystal balls.

No surprise that Labour is predicted to gain at local polls, with a 40 per cent council funding cut by Tory chancellors demanding “more for less”, devolving the axe so councillors do the dirty work of austerity.

People vote in locals on national politics, sadly less on the quality of their local council. The very best and worst councils are swept in and out by the state of politics at Westminster.

Dishonest boast

Party spinners are glumming down, energetically rubbishing their prospects to manage expectations. Professor Philip Cowley of Queen Mary College says, “Labour is set for its best results in 40 years.” But those expecting Labour to capture Tory flagships — Barnet, Wandsworth, Westminster — even Kensington and Chelsea, set the bar high. Outside London, Labour could take Tory Trafford, Swindon and Plymouth, but much depends on who captures UK Independence Party’s (Ukip) 163 seats.

The Tories pretend they’ll be happy just to cling on to Bexley. Labour’s humble pitch by shadow communities secretary Andrew Gwynne is, “Any gains on top of where we were in 2014 would be quite an achievement.” But he points to the open goals: cuts to NHS, police, schools, stagnant wages, dismal house building.

He adds a dishonest boast: “Residents living in Labour council areas pay considerably lower council tax bills compared to those living in Tory controlled councils.” But that’s only because Labour represents lower value property areas. And why, yet again, is Labour talking down tax when a future Labour government can repair national damage by persuading people taxes must rise — and not just for the top 5 per cent and corporations. If not now, when dare they make the case for taxing the top half more and for radically reforming council tax?

Labour could risk more boldness, because the Tory Brexit civil war is about to turn bloody. May delays the Commons vote on the customs union to its limit, but the crunch is coming. She keeps proclaiming a red line she cannot hold. Rees-Moggites make bloodcurdling threats that they will decapitate her if she takes one step towards compromise. Cabinet walkouts are predicted, Boris Johnson eager to challenge. A Brexit red mist threatens to overcome the party that traditionally put power ahead of all else.

Brexit overlays and confuses these local elections too, all political life now refracted and fractured by that great divide. Many EU citizens denied a referendum ballot will be able to vote this time: will they use it to hit back? Will there be a new cohort of Windrush-energised ethnic-minority voters? If so, Labour should sweep the board. But they have most to lose if predicted gains fail.

Despite the financial handcuffs, it matters who runs your council: Labour cities are better run than ever, with a higher calibre of leaders than I’ve ever known, from Newcastle and Liverpool to Manchester, Leeds and London boroughs. These elections matter for the sake of all who rely on good council services, above all the most vulnerable. A plummeting Tory vote would send a salutary shock wave up to Westminster: councils can take no more austerity.