Oil soars as Trump threatens Tehran
US president warns of ‘severe consequences’ if Iran resumes nuclear programme
Oil prices hit 3-1/2-year highs yesterday after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of an international nuclear deal with Iran, while the dollar touched a new high for the year and world stocks held steady.
Trump yesterday warned of “very severe consequences” if Iran resumes its nuclear programme. Asked how he would respond if Tehran restarted its nuclear efforts, Trump threatened that “Iran will find out.”
“I would advise Iran not to start their nuclear programme; I would advise them very strongly,” the US president told reporters at the White House. “If they do, there will be very severe consequences.”
US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said Trump decided to withdraw the US from the Iran nuclear deal because he found it inadequate and could not affirm that the agreement was being lived up to. Mattis made his remarks in response to questions by members of a Senate committee. The Pentagon chief said that since the deal was made in 2015 there has been no reduction in Iran’s “malicious activities”.
World powers vowed yesterday to uphold the deal. President Emmanuel Macron urged his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani to join France, Britain and Germany in sticking to the terms of their agreement. In a telephone call a day after Trump’s announcement, Macron said his aim was to “preserve regional stability”.
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that the “risks of confrontation are real”, adding that Europe would act to “avoid the explosion (of conflict) that risks happening if... no measures are taken.”
Riyadh stance
Saudi Arabia will seek to develop its own nuclear weapons if Iran does, Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir told CNN yesterday, amid spiralling tension between the regional rivals.
Asked whether Riyadh would “build a bomb itself” if Tehran seizes on Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran deal to resume a nuclear weapons programme, Al Jubeir said: “If Iran acquires nuclear capability we will do everything we can to do the same.”
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said yesterdaay that Tehran would quit the deal unless European signatories offered solid guarantees that trade relations would continue after the US withdrew.
Leading Arab states yesterday called for the Iran nuclear deal to be revised, a day after President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the historic accord.
Egypt said yesterday that Arab nations must be involved in any future efforts to amend the international nuclear deal on Iran following Trump’s decision to withdraw from it.
The Egyptian foreign ministry also said Iran must abide by its commitments under the separate nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty “in a way that will ensure that Iran remains a country free of nuclear weapons.”.
A ministry statement called for Arab participation in any future dialogue on regional issues “especially that which is related to the possibility of amending the nuclear deal with Iran”.
Arab League chief Ahmad Abu Al Geit said: “It’s necessary to revise the agreement,” expressing the “exasperation” of Arab nations in the face of Iran’s “destabilising politics” in the region.
Meanwhile, Arab commentators said the US decision to pull out of the nuclear was “correct and timely”.
“I believe it was the right move,” said Nabeel Al Hamar, adviser for information affairs to the King of Bahrain Hamad Bin Eisa Al Khalifa.
“[Since the deal was reached] We have not seen any positive behaviour from Iran towards peace and security in the Gulf region,” Al Hamar said in an interview with Gulf News. “Instead, Iran stepped up its interference in others’ affairs, supported terrorist organisations.”
Arab Gulf states accuse Iran of interfering in their own internal affairs and of sowing sectarian differences in the region. Saudi Arabia is leading an Arab alliance in Yemen against the Al Houthis, which is supported by Iran.
On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain welcomed Trump’s move.
Analysts believe a US pull-out will ultimately make Iran weaker, because of the renewed sanctions. “Iran is weaker today than yesterday,” said UAE political scientist Abdul Khaleq Abdulla. “In the zero-sum game, a weaker Iran means a stronger Riyadh and its allies,” he told Gulf News. “The nuclear deal, which was signed in 2015, was marketed as a tool to make it a force of moderation and stability but we have not seen that in the past two and a half years.”
Saudi political science professor Waheed Hamza Hashem, told Gulf News that “if Iran decides to accelerate its uranium enrichment programme, it will face preemptive military strikes by the US.”
In such a scenario, Iran is the loser because it doesn’t have the developed air defences to stop any American attacks, Hashem said.
Washington will now seek a better deal which protects its strategic interests in the Gulf region and to prevent the eruption of a larger military conflict, he explained.
Europe diplomatic push
Meanwhile, European leaders, unhappy with the US decision, opened a diplomatic push yesterday to salvage the Iran nuclear accord without the US, opening direct talks with Tehran but also looking ahead to possible battles with Washington over European business ties with Iran.
“The deal is not dead,” said French Foreign Minister JeanYves Le Drian, speaking on France’s RTL radio. “There’s an American withdrawal from the deal, but the deal is still there.”
The sentiment was shared in other capitals backing the 2015 nuclear deal: Brussels, Berlin, Moscow, Beijing and Tehran.
European leaders now plan to engage directly with Iran in hopes of keeping alive the deal, which placed limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting international sanctions.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday there should be talks about a broader agreement that goes beyond the original accord.
While Merkel said she regretted Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran accord, she said a broader agreement was needed to deal with regional and international concerns about its behaviour.
Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader chastised Trump for his decision to pull the US out of the deal and warned that Tehran would quit the deal unless European signatories offered solid guarantees that trade relations would continue after the US withdrew.
Addressing Iran’s government in a televised speech, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: “If you don’t succeed in obtaining a definitive guarantee — and I really doubt that you can — at that moment, we cannot continue like this.”
Meanwhile, lawmakers set a paper US flag on fire in the parliament, shouting, “Death to America!” The government backlash reflected broad public anger in Iran over Trump’s de-
cision, which threatens to destroy the agreement.
Iranian officials, including the parliament speaker, say they hope Europe will work with them to preserve the deal, but many are pessimistic.
The 2015 agreement imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme in return for the lifting of most sanctions. However, the deal came with time limits and did not address Iran’s ballistic missile programme or
its support for militant groups across the region branded as terrorists by the West.
Proponents of the deal have said those time limits were meant to encourage more discussion with Iran in the future that could eventually address other concerns.
Late Tuesday night, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said he will be sending Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the countries still in the
deal — China, France, Germany, Russia and the UK. Iran hopes the European Union will pass laws to protect European firms from any potential US sanctions.
Still, Rouhani made a point of stressing that Iran, at any time, could resume its nuclear programme. “If necessary, we can begin our industrial enrichment without any limitations,” the Iranian leader said.
“Until implementation of this decision, we will wait for some weeks and will talk with our friends and allies and other signatories of the nuclear deal.”
Many Iranians are worried about Trump’s decision.
The Iranian rial is already trading at 66,000 to the dollar on the black market despite a government-set rate of 42,000 rials. Iran’s weak economy and unemployment sparked protests in December and January that saw at least 25 killed and nearly 5,000 arrested.
It’s necessary to revise the agreement. The exasperation of Arab nations in the face of the destabilising politics of Iran in the region has gone on for too long.”
Ahmad Abu Al Geit|
Arab League Chief
I believe it was the right move to pull out. Since the deal was reached we have not seen any positive behaviour from Iran towards peace and security in the Gulf region.”
Nabeel Al Hamar|
Bahrain king’s adviser
The nuclear deal, which was signed in 2015, was marketed as a tool to make Iran a force of moderation and stability but we have not seen that in the past two and a half years.” Abdul Khaleq Abdulla | Political analyst