After US pullout from accord, what happens now?
When will US reinstate sanctions?
The withdrawal of the US from a nuclear deal with Iran means the immediate reinstatement of punitive sanctions suspended under the 2015 accord.
The sanctions cover a range of of industries — from transportation and petroleum to insurance and finance — and will gradually come back into force over next six months.
But the Treasury Department said it would give businesses and individuals time for an “orderly wind down of activities”.
In a 10-page document, the Treasury said sanctions enforcement would begin August 6 on activities that include Iran’s purchase of commercial aircraft and services, Iran’s exports of carpets and food to the US, and Iran’s trade in dollars, precious metals, industrial software, sovereign debt and the automotive sector.
Which industry will be most affected?
On November 4, sanctions enforcement would begin on industries that include shipping, oil, petrochemicals, insurance, energy and specialised banking and financial services.
The most vulnerable Iranian industry may be oil, said Farhad Alavi, managing partner of Akrivis Law Group, a Washington law firm that specialises in international trade. “The old US sanctions caused a severe drop in Iran oil exports.” The sanctions’ effects will depend partly on how non-US businesses and foreign governments respond, and whether they decide to risk US penalties.
Does this mean the nuclear agreement is dead?
No. The American withdrawal does not necessarily mean the Iran agreement collapses — at least not immediately. Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia are still parties to the agreement.
If they all agree to maintain it, the effect of restored American sanctions may be softened.
Trump also held out the possibility of negotiating a new agreement with Iran, though its leaders have said that won’t happen.
What if the deal collapses entirely?
If the deal collapses, Iran will presumably be free to restart thousands of centrifuges mothballed under the agreement.
That would let it increase its uranium fuel supply without the close monitoring of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Iran has said it could restore its uraniumenriching capability quickly, which could put it closer to a weapons path. But that might put Iran at risk of economic isolation, at least by the European countries that agreed to the accord. Iran had the technical capability to become a nuclear-weapons state, experts say.
According to American assessments, the Iranians once operated a covert nuclear weapons development programme that they discontinued in 2003.
While Iran has repeatedly asserted that its nuclear activities are for peaceful use only, it had amassed a stockpile of uranium that further refining could have turned into fuel for nuclear bombs.
By some reckonings, Iran needed only a few months to make the required bomb fuel.
It would have needed considerably more time to make a reliable warhead for a missile to deliver such a weapon.
When did Iran begin its nuclear quest?
Iran’s nuclear capabilities at the time the agreement was reached reflected a longstanding effort by the country to harness nuclear power.
It began well before the revolution that overthrew the American-backed shah in 1979. Iran is a signer of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, requiring it to use nuclear energy exclusively for peaceful purposes.
Despite Iran’s repeated denials, questions began to intensify more than 15 years ago about whether it had worked clandestinely to develop nuclear weapon capabilities.
Led by the United States, Western powers sought to pressure Iran with economic sanctions to curb its increasing capacity to enrich uranium and produce plutonium, the fuels of atomic weapons.
After years of off-again-on-again negotiations, an agreement was reached in 2015. It was endorsed by the United Nations.