Two leaders with cold feet risk a hot war
Kim-Moon meeting gives fresh lease of life to the Singapore summit. But whether it will happen is anyone’s guess
It was trumpeted as the meeting of the century, the first time an American president would sit across the table from a North Korean Supreme Leader. Donald Trump sought glory as a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, the man who cleansed the Korean Peninsula of nuclear weapons.
Kim Jong-un would have elevated his status at home and abroad had the summit taken place and his country might have reaped rich economic rewards for its sacrifice. Certainly if all had gone to plan, the people of South Korea and Japan could have slept well at night without fear of being eviscerated from the earth.
But this is no marriage made in heaven. Both men are belligerent and egotistical. Neither is a natural diplomat. Threats of nuclear war do not feature in any diplomatic playbook. Their interactions were more reminiscent of a schoolyard than stable leaderships. Trump veered between calling his counterpart “Little Rocket Man” and “a madman” to praising him as being “very open” and “honourable”. Kim threatened to “tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire”.
“The button for nuclear weapons is on my table,” said Kim. “I too have a nuclear weapon but it is a much bigger and more powerful one than his, and my button works,” Trump fired back.
It is little wonder the much-touted meet-up is scotched, postponed or maybe still on when the men at the top are not only enigmatic but erratic.
Trump’s new National Security Adviser John Bolton was the first to throw a curve ball. This arch neo conservative war hawk wanted Kim’s absolute capitulation to White House demands from the getgo despite his boss having earlier signalled the talks would take place without preconditions.
His comparison between the ongoing diplomacy and the Libyan model must have made Kim’s generous head of hair stand on end. Muammar Gaddafi dismantled his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programmes so that Libya could rejoin the community of nations with the result it was rendered vulnerable to US-led military operations that resulted in his own demise.
Rather than distance himself from Bolton’s unfortunate remark, Trump doubled-down saying, “In Libya, we decimated that country... that model would take place if we don’t make a deal [with North Korea] most likely.” To prove he was in lockstep, Vice-President Mike Pence told Fox News that a US-North Korea confrontation would “end like the Libya model ended”, adding, “This is not a threat, it is a fact.” North Korea’s Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs denounced Pence’s comments as being “ignorant and stupid”.
Moreover, the fact that Trump unilaterally tore up the Iran deal and warned Tehran of severe consequences should its nuclear programme be revived would have surely given Chairman Kim pause. Trump has been withdrawing from all kinds of deals ever since his inauguration, which hardly inspires confidence. The fact that the US and South Korea went ahead with provocative military exercises was not an encouraging sign towards the hoped-for detente.
So who cancelled the historic meeting? Ostensibly it was Mr Trump. He penned the face-saving ‘Dear John’ missive blaming his change of mind on “the tremendous anger and open hostility” contained in one of Kim’s recent statements. For good measure, he reminded the recipient that America’s nuclear weapons “are so massive and powerful” he prayed they would never be used.
Oddly, given that he was the one signalling farewell, he wrote “If you change your mind having to do with this most important summit, please do not hesitate to call me or write.”
Unfortunately, that letter arrived just hours following North Korea’s destruction of its remote nuclear testing site at Punggye-ri, witnessed by a group of invited foreign reporters. This was the second goodwill measure proffered by Kim. The first was the return of three American detainees for which Donald Trump was happy to take all the credit.
Perhaps Trump’s invitation to Kim to get in touch wasn’t that odd after all. North Korea was the first to hint that the summit would never happen both verbally and materially. The Washington Post disclosed that American officials flew to Singapore to prepare for the summit together with North Korean negotiators and were left twiddling their thumbs; their counterparts failed to show-up.
Trump would have us believe that it was China that threw a wrecking ball into the fleeting mutual love-fest. Certainly, President Xi Jinping didn’t appreciate being left out of the loop and would have advised Kim to exercise caution, but in all probability, bellicosity emanating from Pennsylvania Avenue tipped the scales.
What a rollercoaster this is. Hope springs forth once again. On Friday, Kim met with President Moon to discuss how to get talks with the US back on track, an encounter peppered with hugs and wide smiles. Trump tweeted that the US is “having very productive talks with North Korea about reinstating the summit” in Singapore on the same date.
Will it happen or won’t it? Your guess is as good as mine. ■ Linda S. Heard is an award-winning British political columnist and guest television commentator with a focus on the Middle East.