Confusion reigns in Iraq amid vote fraud charges

Experts say claims stem from politicians rather than electoral ills

Close to three weeks after parliamentary polls, confusion reigns in Iraq as allegations mount of election fraud even with negotiations to form a government well under way.

Since the May 12 victory of anti-establishment electoral lists, long-time political figures pushed out by Iraqi voters hoping for change have called for a recount — with some even calling for the poll results to be cancelled.

Iraqi authorities have agreed to review the results, but have yet to take any concrete measures.

Experts say claims of fraud are more likely to stem from frustrated outgoing politicians, rather than any major electoral manipulations in a country determined to turn the page after a three-year fight against Daesh.

In a surprise to many, the parliamentary poll saw populist Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr’s electoral alliance with Iraq’s communists beat a list of former anti-Daesh fighters close to Iran.

“To cancel these results is not possible, it would lead to a crisis and perhaps armed clashes,” political analyst Essam Al Fili told AFP.

Al Fili said Shiite forces, now in a strong position amid negotiations to form a government, “aren’t ready to give up what they’ve won”.

Loudest challengers

Many of Iraq’s longtime political figures — seemingly irremovable since the fall 15 years ago of dictator Saddam Hussain — were pushed out of their seats by new faces.

It is their voices — with parliament speaker Salim Al Juburi leading the charge — that have been the loudest in challenging the poll results.

Politicians, who have until today to formalise their complaints, voted on Monday in parliament to annul the votes of displaced Iraqis and those living abroad. They also voted in favour of a manual recount of 10 per cent of ballot boxes.

If the results differ by more than 25 per cent from those announced by the electoral commission, the move would force a manual recount of nearly 11 million ballots.

But the vote — which is nonbinding — is purely symbolic.

Intelligence services said tests of electronic voting machines brought varied results — appearing to give credence to the fraud claims.

Review order

And while the government has ordered a review of vote results, media and social networks continue to pick apart the allegations. But it is in the multi-ethnic and oil-rich Kirkuk province that the challenge to the results is the strongest — and the most explosive.

Kirkuk’s ethnically mixed population — majority Kurdish but with sizeable Arab and Turkmen minorities — pushed authorities to impose a curfew.

Vote results in the province reflect its communal balance, with six Kurds, three Arabs and three Turkmen elected.

But the International Crisis Group has said the results have two “striking incongruities”.

The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan swept the Kurdish vote, but “won in several non-Kurdish areas where the party is not known to have any support”, the group said in a report published last week.

The second discrepancy was that “turnout in Kurdish areas was low compared both to past elections and to the participation rate in Turkmen neighbourhoods and camps for the internally displaced”, where much of the province’s Arab population has lived since Daesh swept across the country in 2014.