US-China clash doesn’t augur well for the world
Beijing is now almost guaranteed to adopt a diplomatic position that causes Washington maximum discomfort
It was no coincidence that, within days of President Donald Trump pulling out of his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, two heavily-armed American warships were reported making a highly contentious passage through the South China Sea. The vessels, the USS Higgins, a Burke-class destroyer, and the guidedmissile cruiser USS Antietam, provoked an angry response from Beijing after they passed within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands.
The islands, in an archipelago in the South China Sea, comprise part of the network of islets, shoals and reefs that the Chinese have been busy colonising in recent years. Although other countries in the region, such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan, have claims of their own to the waters, the Chinese have pressed ahead with construction of a number of military bases in a clumsy attempt to justify their sovereignty claims.
China’s actions have met with resistance in Washington, which rejects Beijing’s claim to control all the waters of the South China Sea.
To this end, the US Navy has been conducting regular “freedom of navigation” patrols in the region to demonstrate the right of all global shipping to free passage, as well as showing its support to the rival territorial claims of the US’ regional allies.
The timing of last weekend’s diplomatic spat, with China’s Ministry of National Defence saying the American warships had “gravely violated Chinese sovereignty”, needs to be viewed, though, in the context of Trump’s unhappiness about next month’s meeting with the North Korean leader in Singapore.
While not blaming Beijing directly, Trump intimated that he believed the Chinese had not exactly been helpful in their behind-the-scenes dealings with the North Koreans. The president referred to Kim’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month, after which, Trump said, “there was a little change in attitude from Kim Jong-un. So I don’t like that. I don’t like it from the standpoint of China.”
There is, of course, quite a lot Trump does not like about China’s “standpoint”, especially the enormous imbalance in the trading relationship between the two countries. Trump recently demanded Beijing cut its trade deficit with the US by $200 billion (Dh734.6 billion) in the next two years, a move that may well have persuaded Xi to be less than cooperative in his handling of the North Korean crisis, especially as, just like the South China Sea, Beijing regards Pyongyang as falling under its sphere of influence.
Cosying up to Washington’s foes
Nor is China’s unhelpful attitude towards Washington confined to issues relating to its own backyard. Beijing has launched a number of diplomatic initiatives in other parts of the world that put it at odds with American policymaking.
When, for example, the US imposed a number of punitive sanctions against Moscow for its various attempts to undermine the western alliance, the Chinese responded by launching a new era of diplomatic, military and commercial engagement with Russia, prompting one senior Chinese diplomat to remark that relations between the two countries were now at “the best level in history”.
Another case where the Chinese have deliberately placed themselves in the opposing camp to Washington concerns Iran. Following the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal, Beijing announced earlier this week that it is to host Iranian President Hassan Rouhani for talks on deepening the economic cooperation between the two countries.
A distinct pattern is starting to emerge whereby, whenever the Trump administration finds itself facing a major challenge, Beijing can almost be guaranteed to adopt a position that causes Washington the maximum discomfort. And, if this is the approach Xi is going to adopt in his future dealings with the West, then the US and its allies need to wake up to the implications of Beijing’s uncooperative attitude.
For too long Western leaders have kowtowed to Beijing in the hope of gaining access to China’s vast economic wealth. In Britain, this means China now owns large chunks of our national infrastructure. Cosying up to the Chinese, which was always former chancellor George Osborne’s preferred option, could prove counterproductive if, as Beijing’s recent diplomatic initiatives suggest, it is China, not Russia, that is intent on starting a new Cold War.
Compared to Russia, with its ageing and dilapidated military infrastructure, China is fast emerging as the world’s next military superpower, as the launch of its first domestically produced aircraft carrier earlier this month demonstrates.
China still has some way to go before it becomes a military power of the first rank, as its inability to challenge American warships in the South China Sea demonstrates. But when the Chinese do reach the point where they can back their antiwestern diplomatic posturing with brute military strength, they will truly be a force to reckon with.
■ Con Coughlin is the Daily Telegraph’s defence editor and chief foreign affairs columnist.