Do you try to drop or take a finesse?

Mohammad Azharuddin, an Indian cricketer who became a politician, said, “I started training for [batting] from the age of eight or nine. So, I knew what I needed when I stepped on the field to bat.” The biggest difference between batting in cricket and in baseball is that in cricket, you never have to run. But now we are jogging from eight cards missing the queen and “eight ever,” to adding one card for “nine never.” In this deal, the bidding was not perfect, ending in a dangerous three notrump instead of a safe five diamonds or a playable six diamonds. How should South plan the play after West leads the heart king? In the auction, after South denied a four-card major, North, with that heart singleton, should have rebid three diamonds, showing at least game-going values, a four-card major and five-plus diamonds. South would either have raised to four diamonds or (better) control-bid four clubs to indicate a very suitable hand, reaching five or six diamonds. In three no-trump, South has seven top tricks: one heart, two diamonds and four clubs. But he needs to take nine without losing the lead. This requires running diamonds. He cashes the king and leads low, West following low. What now? Finessing succeeds when West started with queen-third, which has an a priori probability of 28.45 per cent. Calling for dummy’s ace wins when East started with queen-doubleton, which has a probability of 31.03 per cent. So, it is fractionally better to call for dummy’s ace, nine never.