With a useful spot, maximize the odds

Rollie Fingers, who won three straight World Series with the Oakland A’s in 1972, ‘73 and ‘74, and was the MVP in ‘74, said, “That’s all baseball is ... numbers; it’s run by numbers, averages, percentage and odds. Managers make their decisions based on the numbers.” Bridge players are influenced by the numbers, but as I mentioned yesterday, one must take the full layout into account. In today’s deal, how should South play in three no-trump after West leads the heart king? Here is the world’s most common auction again. Whether you are the opener or responder, do not worry about low doubletons. It is partner’s job to cover your weak suit. South starts with seven top tricks: one heart, two diamonds and four clubs. He does not have time to drive out the spade ace. Instead, declarer must take four diamond tricks. Remembering “eight ever,” he plans on playing low to dummy’s jack, and there is probably an immediate reaction to start with the ace, but that is the wrong play. If East has a singleton diamond queen, South cannot take four tricks; West’s 10-8-7-3 would be worth a trick. Instead, declarer must allow for West’s having a singleton queen. At trick three, South should lead a low diamond from his hand. When West does play the queen, declarer wins with dummy’s king, cashes the jack, leads low to his key nine-spot and takes the ace. Then four club winners bring home the contract. Watch out for valuable spot cards like South’s diamond nine that give you extra chances.