Iranian threats will fall flat
THREATS TO DISRUPT OIL SHIPMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE BEFORE
Vows to disrupt oil shipments in Strait of Hormuz have been made before|
Astatement by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday threatening to disrupt international shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates just how difficult the internal situation in the country is, analysts said.
The comments, rather, were meant to satisfy hardliners in Iran.
Iran, they explained, is not helping itself by raising the tension in the region and adopting a “confrontational attitude” with the US.
Anoush Ehteshami, Professor of International Relations and Head of the School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University, says Iran has made such threats before, but never acted on them.
Consequences
“Americans say they want to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero. It shows they have not thought about its consequences,” Rouhani said, warning that if Washington forced countries to stop buying Iranian oil, Tehran would disrupt oil shipments from neighbouring countries.
It is estimated that around 30 per cent of the seaborne crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
In 2016, reports estimate that nearly 18.5 million barrels per day were exported through the strategic passage.
Most crude exported via Hormuz heads to Asia, the US and western Europe.
Around 30 per cent of the global liquefied natural gas trade also travels through the narrow channel.
Obstructing international shipping lanes in the Hormuz is a “red line that they (Iranians) could be punished for if they dared to carry out their threats,” Khattar Abu Diab from the Paris-based Council on Geopolitics and Perspectives, told Gulf News.
Rouhani wants “to be seen taking a tough stand,” Ehteshami said.
But Iran is not expected to act on its threat because it wants the nuclear deal with world powers to survive. Rouhani’s statements are directed more towards domestic constituencies, Ehteshami believes.
Under pressure
The Iranian president is under an enormous amount of pressure internally,” he said.
Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander, Qassem Sulaimani, praised Rouhani’s remarks and said his forces were ready to implement such a policy.
Rouhani is currently visiting European countries in an attempt to save the nuclear deal signed in 2015 between Iran and the major powers.
Ehteshami believes Rouhani’s Europe trip is vital for his political career and survival while other analysts say his resignation cannot be ruled out.
US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the deal, saying there is a need to negotiate a new and “better” one.
Since then, the US has warned countries to stop importing Iranian oil by November 4 or face US financial measures.
“The Iranians think the nuclear deal can survive with the support of China, Europe and Russia against the Americans. With time, they will realise that this is not possible,” said Abu Diab. The survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran is connected to its relationship with the US, he added.
Iran’s Opec governor, Hussain Kazempour Ardebili, said oil should not be used as a
weapon or for political purposes, according to the Iran oil ministry news agency SHANA.
“Trump’s demand that Iranian oil should not be bought, and [his] pressures on European firms at a time when Nigeria and Libya are in crisis, when Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen due to US sanctions, when Saudi’s domestic consumption has increased in summer, is nothing but self harm,” he said.
“It will increase the prices of oil in the global markets and at the end it is the American consumer who will pay the price,” he added.
Abu Diab believes Washington is sending a message to Iran: “Either change your policies, or it [the regime] will be changed.”