Old conflict, new headache for Nigeria’s Buhari

Killings in Middle Belt could hamper leader’s bid for re-election

An age-old conflict over grazing land in Nigeria that’s exploded into widespread violence may be threatening President Muhammadu Buhari’s chances for re-election in February. His administration has been unable to calm a crisis that saw at least 200 people killed in a June 23 attack blamed on mostly Muslim ethnic Fulani herders on a mainly Christian crop-farming community in a central region known as the Middle Belt. It was the latest in a string of violent incidents this year that have claimed more than 1,000 lives and undermined public confidence in the government.

“Buhari’s lacklustre response to the killings in the Middle Belt will haunt him in the next election,” Leena Koni Hoffmann, an Africa researcher at Londonbased Chatham House, said by email.

Buhari, 75, won the presidency on his fourth try in 2015 by building a coalition that delivered in addition to his northern base swing areas in the southwest and the Middle Belt, including some of the states worst hit by the violence such as Plateau and Benue. Carrying the central region may be more difficult this time.

“The Middle Belt killings certainly create a major weak spot for Buhari,” Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, said by email. “If he loses the Middle Belt, as is looking likely, he’ll have to win more votes in the south to win the election.”