‘Mother of all battles’ looms in Syria’s Idlib
Province stands as last significant enclave of armed opposition against Al Assad
For nearly three years, green buses have filed into Syria’s Idlib province, bringing those evacuated from other opposition enclaves that fell to regime forces — thousands of defeated rebel fighters, wanted activists and civilians who refused to go back under Bashar Al Assad’s rule.
They now face what is likely to be the last showdown between Al Assad’s forces and the opposition. Al Assad has vowed to retake the province, and pro-regime media promise the “mother of all battles”.
If it comes to an all-out assault, it could bring a humanitarian crisis. Filled with displaced from elsewhere, the province in Syria’s northwest corner is packed with some three million people, the most deeply irreconcilable with Al Assad’s regime and including some of the world’s most radical militants. They have little option but to make a stand, with few good places to escape.
“Currently, all (opposition) from around Syria came to Idlib. The only solution is to fight. There is no alternative,” said Firas Barakat, an Idlib resident. The 28-year-old said that for years he has dedicated himself to civilian opposition activities, but now he must take up arms.
The opposition capture of Idlib in 2015 signalled the low point for Al Assad’s regime during the course of war that is now nearly eight years old — a time when rebels controlled large parts of two main Syrian cities, major highways, border crossings, dams and oil resources. Russian and Iranian backing enabled Al Assad’s military to claw back territory.
“When we saw the resistance collapse in the south and we thought it never would give [in as] it was the first to resist the regime — fear really prevailed here,” said Barakat.
Squeezed, the opposition is desperate. But its forces are not small, and their territory is not tiny and sealed off as other opposition holdouts were. That portends a complex and difficult battle.
Battle-hardened militants
The number of fighters in Idlib is estimated at several tens of thousands, including thousands of battle-hardened militants from Al Qaida-linked groups and from China’s Turkic-speaking Uighur minority.
The opposition-held area abuts the Turkish border on the north and west. Though Turkey has built a wall, the border remains porous. To the east is an enclave held by Turkish-backed Syrian fighters, a possible escape route for anyone fleeing, though it is already overwhelmed by displaced.
Activists report regime troops arriving at Abu Dhuhur airbase in east Idlib, which the regime seized early this year. Just how ferocious an offensive turns out to be depends on diplomatic manoeuvring among the power players — particularly Russia, which appears reluctant for an all-out assault.