Lebanon faces political logjam three months after legislative polls

Iran-backed Hezbollah not willing to compromise as its influence expands

Lebanon faces a political impasse three months after an election produced a parliament tilted in favour of the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah, with no sign of compromises needed to form a unity government.

Negotiations have run into a knot of complications, notably how Prime Minister-designate Sa’ad Hariri can form a government that reflects the result while satisfying Western and Gulf Arab concerns over Hezbollah’s influence.

One senior politician said talks were in a state of “stagnation”. A senior official from another party said there was no indication of compromises and forecast a period of “meaningless movement”.

The heavily armed Hezbollah, with allied parties and independents, won more than 70 of parliament’s 128 seats in the May 6 election, a reversal of Lebanon’s 2009 vote when groups with Western and Saudi support scored a majority.

Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the United States, called it a victory for the “choice of the resistance” — a reference to the arsenal it has used in conflicts with Israel and more recently in neighbouring Syria’s war. Iranian Major-General Qassem Sulaimani later put it more bluntly, saying Hezbollah had won.

The result has spawned new complications for Lebanon’s tangled sectarian politics — long an arena for regional and international struggles played out through local allies.

Christians, Druze and Sunnis are all jostling for ministries. Additionally, the Shiite Hezbollah aims to move beyond its traditional backseat role in the next cabinet. It wants three instead of two seats in this cabinet, and more influential ministries than it has previously held, to include public service providers.

With the group being targeted as part of a US campaign against Iran, wider Hezbollah influence could raise questions about Western aid to a country that hosts around 1 million registered Syrian refugees.

US support for Lebanon’s army could also be in doubt.

Firas Maksad, director of The Arabia Foundation think tank in Washington, said the election had created a conundrum.

“You have election result that produced a more positive outcome for Hezbollah and its allies. These results need to be taken into consideration as the government is being put together,” he said.

But “trying to form a government that would prove unwelcome in Riyadh, let alone Washington ... would come at a potentially steep cost for the country. Hariri is taking his time, and in many ways he is stuck.”

Political commentator Rajeh Khoury said it was “difficult to see a government in the foreseeable period, unless some strange surprise occurs”.

Citing the economy, he said that the delay had come “at the worst time”. The Hariris had been the dominant Sunni force in Lebanon since the 1975-90 civil war ended. But Sa’ad lost more than a third of his seats in the last election, held under a new system. Hezbollah allies gained at his expense.

Main problems

They included pro-Damascus politicians, some of whom returned to public office for the first time since Syria withdrew forces from Lebanon in 2005.

The one bright spot for Hezbollah opponents was an improved performance by the Christian Lebanese Forces (LF) party. It nearly doubled its MPs, closing the gap with the biggest Christian party, Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement. Reconciling the demands of the LF and the Aounists is one of the main problems. Another is Druze rivalry.

Walid Junblatt, Lebanon’s main Druze leader and a former pillar of March 14, wants his party to control three cabinet seats allotted to the Druze.

But Talal Arslan, a rival Druze politician and Hezbollah ally, wants one of these.

While Saudi Arabia remains less concerned with Lebanon than in years gone by, Maksad said it was probable Riyadh did not want to see the Lebanese Forces and Junblatt marginalised. “I don’t know if that was explicitly communicated — it might have been — but I think that would be a good assumption on the part of Prime Minister Hariri,” he said.

Additionally, Hezbollah’s newly elected Sunni allies want a slice of government. “The problems could be solved tomorrow, or in a year’s time,” said a third senior politician.