US-Turkey ties cracking up rapidly
The crisis between the two Nato allies is the worst since Washington imposed an arms embargo on Ankara over its 1974 invasion of Cyprus
Turkey’s relations with the United States have been unremittingly rotten for some time. They took a sharp turn for the worse when last week, the US Treasury slapped Turkey’s interior and justice ministers with sanctions inspired by the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, which have been used to target criminals and human rights abusers. The sanctions freeze the assets of the targeted individuals in the US and prohibit American citizens and companies from engaging in transactions with them.
The trigger for the sanctions on the Turkish ministers was Andrew Brunson, a North Carolina pastor imprisoned in Turkey since October 2016 on terrorism charges, supposedly for trying to fragment the country and help plan a failed coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The lawyers for Brunson have pointed out that because he and his wife returned to Turkey after the July 2016 coup and sought permanent residency in the country, they could not have been involved in the coup. US President Donald Trump and several senators have vouched for Brunson’s innocence and described his imprisonment as Turkey using him as a political bargaining chip.
On July 26, Trump threatened “large sanctions” if Turkey did not release the pastor immediately. Turkey’s battered lira fell further, losing 2.3 per cent of its value against the dollar after Trump tweeted his threat. The Turkish lira has lost 27 per cent of its value this year. Erdogan described the sanctions on his ministerial colleagues as a “Zionist Evangelist plot” and vowed to retaliate in kind by imposing sanctions on the American counterparts of the Turkish ministers. Pro-government Turkish newspapers are baying for US troops to be kicked out of Incirlik, a Turkish air base used in the fight against Daesh militants and other critical missions, but the Turkish government has not moved in that direction yet.
The crisis between the two Nato allies is the worst since the US imposed an arms embargo on Turkey over its 1974 invasion of Cyprus. But even if Brunson is allowed to leave, TurkishAmerican relations won’t improve significantly.
Turkey is holding several US citizens, including Serkan Golge, a Turkish-American Nasa scientist, who was visiting Turkey after the coup and was arrested after a disgruntled relative claimed he had links to coup plotters. Three Turkish nationals working for American consulates in Turkey are also under detention on a cocktail of specious terror charges.
Hollowing out democratic institutions
The US Congress has lined up its own set of sanctions, which include freezing the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, as retaliation for the imprisonments and Turkey’s plans to acquire the Russian-made S-400 missile system, which the Pentagon sees as compromising Nato security. The Turkish government’s supporters in the Trump administration argue for de-escalation because they see the relationship with Turkey as too valuable to forsake. They argue that punitive measures would drive Erdogan fully into the embrace of Russia, China and Iran.
As Erdogan continues to systematically hollow out Turkey’s democratic institutions, foreign investors continue to flee. As economic troubles mount, Erdogan’s sizeable pool of supporters in the Turkish business community may rethink their loyalty. Unlike Iran, Turkey does not have oil to subsidise the follies of its leaders.
Despite its cooperation with Russia against the Syrian Kurds, Turkey is nervous about Russian expansionism in the Black Sea and South Caucasus. Turkey does not recognise the annexation of Crimea, champions the cause of ethnic Crimean Tatars and has closed its ports to traffic from Crimea in protest. Erdogan may talk tough, but Turkey needs Nato and he is aware of it.
Paranoia about purported western designs to weaken and fragment Turkey — notably through the establishment of an independent Kurdish state — has been embedded in the Turkish mind since the defeat of the Ottoman Empire by Allied powers at the end of the First World War.
It is a measure of both Turkey’s insecurity and arrogance that it believes it is the object of such plans. Turkey’s once omnipotent generals, and now Erdogan, have manipulated those fears to justify the oppression of their own citizens and consolidate their grip.
Pressingly, the US must ensure that Brunson, other American citizens and the Turkish staff of the US Embassy who are in prison are freed immediately. The longer it holds out, the harder it will be to step back and salvage the relationship because the Turkish government will get trapped further by its own rhetoric about American plots. Erdogan’s near total control of the media means he can spin freeing Brunson and others as a victory.