Tories are better off with May, poll finds
Party’s poll chances would be harmed by Johnson or Rees-Mogg, ICM survey says
Replacing Theresa May with Boris Johnson, or other putative leadership candidates, would not boost the Conservative party’s chances of winning the next election, a poll has suggested.
In findings that will offer some relief to the prime minister, an ICM survey for the Guardian found that voters believe the Tories would be more likely to lose the next election if May was replaced by Johnson or five other potential successors.
The only scenario deemed likely to improve Tory prospects, according to the poll, was if the party was led by an unspecified person who was “quite young and able [and] not currently in government”.
The poll’s findings are not a robust prediction of future political opinion but do offer some indication of how the Conservatives might fare under different management; May’s position would be much more precarious if the survey predicted a better showing under a specific alternative leader.
May’s leadership has been questioned since she called a snap election in 2017 that led to the loss of the Tories’ Commons majority. Speculation about an autumn leadership challenge has intensified since she announced her Chequers Brexit plan, prompting Johnson to resign as foreign secretary on the grounds it would not constitute a proper Brexit.
This led to Johnson soaring to the top in the regular survey of Conservative party members conducted by the Conservative Home website about who they want as next leader, overtaking the backbench Brexiter Jacob Rees Mogg.
But, asked by ICM if the Conservatives would have a better chance of winning the next election under Johnson, only 27 per cent of respondents agreed, while 45 per cent disagreed, giving Johnson a net score of -18.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is popular with rightwing activists, is also seen as a vote loser, with a net score of -19.