Only thing certain in Libya is the uncertainty
Militias and Daesh have engaged in turf wars for control of cities
Dozens of people have been killed after days of violent clashes in the suburbs of Tripoli, with rival militias fighting fierce street battles for control of the Libyan capital.
The upheaval is the latest setback in the long running and highly chaotic effort to cobble together a government and restore stability after strongman Muammar Gaddafi was toppled from power during the height of the ‘Arab Spring’ in 2011.
Since Gaddafi was ousted, dozens of militias and a Daesh affiliate have engaged in turf wars for control of Libya’s cities.
But the latest conflict is less about government authority than a power play for resources.
What’s happening now?
Last week, a militia calling itself the 7th Brigade mobilised from its base in Tarhunah, a city southeast of Tripoli, and stormed the capital’s southern suburbs.
Billing itself as Libya’s “national army,” it attacked local militias working with the internationally recognised Government of National Accord, or GNA, and accused them of taking “public money” and “stealing people’s livelihoods.”
In response, the GNA ordered factions from neighbouring towns to come to its defence. Despite two truce agreements, the fighting left almost 50 people dead and 130 others injured in the last week.
Gassan Salame, the representative of the UN’s secretary general in the country, arrived on Tuesday for what the UN described as a “meeting on the security situation.” Later, it declared Salame had brokered a ceasefire agreement. But it’s unclear how long the truce will hold up.
What’s it like in Tripoli?
In Tripoli, fighting have resulted in four militias affiliated with the GNA being put in charge of the capital’s security. But that relative stability has come at a price. According to a recent report by the Small Arms Survey, the de facto security forces have now morphed into a “functioning cartel” .
What happens next?
As rival forces continue to assemble around Tripoli and its environs, European governments, particularly Italy, fear the unrest could unleash another wave of migrants.
The GNA is desperate to safeguard its presence. GNA head Fayez Serraj has given militias loyal to his government until the end of the month to help secure Tripoli and then leave the capital. But Haftar, with Egypt behind him, may take advantage of the chaos to sweep away his opponents and take over the government, analysts say.