Changing dynamics of Israel-Russia game plan on Syria

While Moscow is keen to prevent incidents such as the downing of its spy plane, Tel Aviv will have to think hard before any new attack

Israeli-Russian ties are witnessing their worst crisis in years, following last week’s downing of a Russian reconnaissance plane with 15 servicemen on board close to the Syrian coast. The plane was shot down by mistake by Syrian forces, but Moscow has blamed Israel for the incident. “We believe that the Israeli Air Force and those who were making decisions about these actions are fully to blame for the tragedy that happened to the Russian Il-20 plane,” a statement from the Russian Defence Ministry said last Sunday.

It added that an Israeli fighter jet flying over Syria’s Mediterranean coast shortly before the downing deliberately used the Russian plane as a shield, reflecting “either lack of professionalism or criminal negligence”. Israel has rejected Russian accusations, but the incident has inflicted damage on bilateral ties and elicited a strong Russian reaction.

On Monday, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Moscow would send Russia’s powerful S-300 ground-to-air missile systems to Syria in the next two weeks. In addition, the Russians will boost their electronic defence systems in their base of Hmeymim in Syria while threatening to jam communication systems of hostile aircraft close to Syrian airspace. Furthermore, Moscow is now considering imposing no-fly zones in Syria; a move that will challenge both Israel and the United States-led coalition’s aerial activities in that region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reached an understanding on Syria, where Israel would be allowed to hit Iranian targets and weapon depots. Russia would also pressure the Iranians to keep a safe distance from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

But the downing of the Russian spy plane will change a delicate entente between Tel Aviv and Moscow. Russia’s strong reaction and rejection of Israel’s version of what had happened on that day has put pressure on Netanyahu. While Israel has vowed to continue hitting Iranian targets in Syria, the question now is will it go as far as to test Moscow’s resolve? Likewise, Putin is also under pressure to take action against future Israeli incursions.

Casting doubt over previous agreements with Israel, Shoigu said, as he announced the dispatch of the S-300 to Syria, that “today, the situation has changed, for no fault of ours”.

The downing of the Russian plane will be seen as a watershed in Israel-Russia relations, particularly over Syria. The S-300 air defence system is sophisticated and will pose a serious threat to Israeli jets. It will upset the existing balance of power between Syrian and Israeli militaries for the first time since the 1973 war.

While Moscow will not revise its position, it remains to be seen if the Syrians will have complete operational control of the new system. Syria had vowed to retaliate at a time of its choosing almost every time Israeli jets struck targets inside its territory. So did the Iranians.

But despite the latest escalation, Israel knows that it has the most to lose from upsetting its ties with Kremlin. Likewise, Putin would want to maintain coordination with the Israelis over Syria and other files as Moscow expands its influence in the region. But the weight of the crisis falls on Israel’s shoulders. Now that Moscow has taken a number of steps to prevent future incidents, Israel will have to think hard before giving the go-ahead for any new attack inside Syrian territory.