Via arms and trade, Russia plots long-term Syria presence
The same day that Russian diplomats struck a deal with Turkey over a demilitarised zone in Syria’s last rebel-run region, dozens of Russian businessmen were flying home from Damascus, contracts in hand for trade with a postwar Syria.
Whatever happens to the rebels in Idlib province, Russia is determined to keep Syria solidly anchored in its sphere of influence over the long term – both as a foothold in the Middle East and as a warning to the US and its allies against future interference.
“Russia wants a new Mideast security order,” said Emile Hokayem, Middle East security expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
While Russia is blamed for widespread death and destruction as it supports Syrian President Bashar Assad, its forces have proven decisive in the international struggle against the Daesh group, giving Moscow a credibility that Western powers lack. “Their intervention yielded much better returns than anyone expected,” Hokayem said.
Now the central challenge facing US and other Western diplomats huddling about Syria this week at the United Nations is how to stay relevant.
Meanwhile Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dashed from one meeting to the next in the UN headquarters, stressing Russia’s concerns about Syria with the top diplomats of Iran and Turkey, and with UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura.
Even as Russia flaunts its diplomatic success, it’s also securing a military future with Syria. Russia announced Monday it’s selling S-300 missile systems to Syria.
A group of 38 Russian companies took part in the Damascus International Fair earlier this month. It was at least the fourth event in the past year aimed at reviving Russian trade with Syria - and Russian companies are heading back to Syria in early October for a conference on rebuilding the country.
Syria’s neighbours are similarly active, notably close ally Iran. But in Russia’s case, analysts say, the economic activity is closely linked to its influence strategy. Russia, for example, wants to rebuild Syria’s train network.
“Russia built it in the first place, and wants to rebuild this and strategic economic ties,” said independent Russian analyst Vyacheslav Matuzov. Russian companies are seeking a diverse trade base, with food, farming and energy deals, according to the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.