Key issues in the tug-of-war

Immigration, health care, jobs. The extraordinary US midterm elections have been a tug of war over key issues, but none has had a more dramatic impact on voters than Donald Trump, the man who isn’t even on the ballot.

The US president was the omnipresent figure as Americans rendered their verdict on the past 21 months of Trumpism. Here are the key factors in the battle for political control in Washington and across the country.

Trump, Trump, Trump

Even though Trump is not on the ballot, he is at the heart of the 2018 vote. The election near the halfway mark of a president’s first term is traditionally a referendum on the White House occupant. But the billionaire businessman’s explosive and iconoclastic personality has taken the trend to a new level. Many Democrats are counting on anti-Trump fervour to drive their base to the polls, but some advocate ignoring the politics of personal destruction and zeroing in on policy debates.

Violence

The campaign’s final weeks were marred by the worst anti-Semitic attack in modern US history, which left 11 dead in a Pittsburgh synagogue. Days earlier, a frantic manhunt led to the arrest of a fanatical Trump supporter on charges of mailing pipe bombs to prominent Trump opponents, including former president Barack Obama. This spasm of violence fuelled a debate about the president’s caustic rhetoric, and whether it has played a role in deepening American divisions.

Women

Following the outbreak of the #MeToo movement denouncing sexual assault, and the massive women’s protests against Trump, women voters and candidates will play critical roles in the first major election since Trump took power. And they appear particularly motivated to vote. Female college graduates in well-off suburbs are in the spotlight because many are voicing disgust with Trump’s aggressive rhetoric. Also a record number of women are candidates for Congress, where they currently hold only about 20 per cent of the seats.

Immigration

Sending thousands of troops to the US-Mexico border to counter a migrant “invasion,” questioning the validity of birthright citizenship, and spreading stories of scandalous murders by undocumented immigrants: Trump and his Republicans are making immigration a closing argument of the campaign. It may be a logical move. Immigration is a top concern among Republican voters, and driving those issue-focused Trump supporters to the polls is key.

Health care

For months, Democrats have drilled their central message into the minds of voters: if Republicans strengthen their grip on Congress, they will destroy your health care, including coverage protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions. Recognising this has galvanised voters regardless of party, Republicans have seized on it in the campaign’s closing month, insisting that their plans would enshrine such protections.

The economy

Between Trump’s “trade war,” his renegotiation of international treaties, robust US growth and full employment, the economy is at the heart of this election. In mining territory and industrial zones, Trump’s protectionist policies are welcome. But farmers themselves have suffered from retaliatory measures imposed by America’s trading partners. Even with the US economy largely humming along, the president himself often prefers to rile up a crowd over immigration.