Wall Street profit estimates may be adding in too much

ANALYSTS SEE YEAR-OVER-YEAR S&P 500 EARNINGS DECLINE OF 0.5%

As Wall Street braces for the first quarterly decline in earnings in nearly three years, some investors are wondering if the market is factoring in a bigger erosion in profit margins than will actually come to pass.

Forecasts for US earnings, after a big boost from corporate tax cuts in 2018, are falling sharply in 2019. But revenue forecasts remain relatively robust, leaving an expected spike in costs as the main reason for profitability to weaken.

But some strategists say there is little evidence yet of such cost pressures and that margins may hold up better than expected.

“Companies since the 2008 trauma have made it a top priority to maintain and increase, if possible, their profit margins,” said Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research.

“We don’t expect that labour compensation and other costs will squeeze margins. Nor do we expect that an increase in those costs will boost prices,” he added. “Rather, we are betting on improving productivity.”

Biggest potential risks

Besides the tightening labour market, the trade war between the United States and China and the stronger US dollar are among the biggest potential risks to corporate margins this year.

For the first quarter, analysts are forecasting a year-overyear S&P 500 earnings decline of 0.5 per cent, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Second-quarter earnings are still expected to grow 3.5 per cent, though that estimate also is down sharply from the start of the year.

Credit Suisse strategists said profit margins are holding up better than the estimates suggest, at least for the majority of S&P 500 companies.

They said profit margins are eroding sharply for several heavily weighted companies, including Apple, ExxonMobil and chipmakers like Micron Technology, which are skewing data for the entire S&P benchmark index.

A recent drop in oil prices has hurt margins for energy companies, a slowdown in the semiconductor business cycle has hit companies in that space and other firms have boosted investment expenses, said Patrick Palfrey, senior equity strategist at Credit Suisse Securities in New York.

Moreover, worries that a tight labour market will drive up wages have been limited in earnings calls for the fourthquarter reporting period, which is nearing an end.

Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note on Wednesday that while some companies are feeling the pressures of rising wages, more consumer-facing companies viewed the trend as a positive for consumer spending.