How to defuse the population time bomb?
The world is at a turning point.
First, the good news: fertility rates have dropped and life expectancy has increased in most countries due to a combination of better access to education, employment prospects and phenomenal breakthroughs in medical technology — which means people today live much longer on average than their predecessors, and the global population will grow at a slower pace than earlier predicted.
According to the latest United Nations estimates, overall life expectancy will increase from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years by 2050. But the average lifespan of a baby born in one of the least developed countries will be seven years shorter than one born in a developed country. And the number of people aged 80 or older is expected to triple from 143 million today to 426 million by 2050. The key challenges for the world to defuse a potential demographic time bomb, therefore, comprise the following:
1. Managing fiscal pressure: A growing number of countries will face unprecedented stress on their economic resources as too few young workers are left to support rapidly ageing populations. Nations providing public health care and social protection will have to find newer ways to shore up already dwindling state revenues.
2. Balancing jobs and poverty: The proportion of young people without jobs has grown globally. Both India and China have addressed this challenge somewhat successfully in the past decades. But the challenge will be stark in Africa — where the rate of poverty has fallen significantly but a rapid growth of population has meant that the total number of Africans living in poverty has actually gone up.
3. Raising the age of retirement: A bulk of jobs in developing countries no longer require hard physical labour. Along with quality investments in health care, raising the age of retirement will hold the key to tackling the costs that come with an ageing population.
4. Managing the immigration tide: While the pattern of the global migrant population does pose a challenge for the demographic boom, encouraging skilled immigration is one (short-term) solution for developed countries to counter the global pattern of ageing.