Will a US-Taliban deal end killings in Afghanistan?
Observers say Daesh is likely to conduct more attacks on the eve of historic settlement
Situation to get worse as Daesh sets out to make its mark
Abdul Sattar was leaving his cousin’s wedding when he noticed a well-dressed man pull up on a bicycle and rush inside the hall.
After decades of carnage in Afghanistan, little things can set off alarm bells. Abdul Sattar, a sergeant in the Afghan army, recalled thinking: “He could be a suicide bomber.”
Moments later, a blast ripped through the crowded hall where about 1,200 guests had gathered on a Saturday night. Witnesses said the assailant ran toward the stage where a band was playing and detonated a suicide vest.
The blast, which left 63 people dead and more than 180 wounded, was the deadliest in the Afghan capital this year and deepened questions about US President Donald Trump’s plans to withdraw US troops as violence against civilians surges in Afghanistan.
WHAT IS THE US NEGOTIATING?
The Trump administration is said to be nearing an agreement with the Taliban after months of negotiations under which the US would pull out half the estimated 20,000 international troops in Afghanistan in exchange for Taliban pledges not to allow the country to harbour other extremist groups.
But it was the local affiliate of Daesh that claimed responsibility for the blast in west Kabul.
WHY COULD THE FIGHTING GET MORE NASTY?
The attack highlighted the concerns among many Afghans and analysts that while the US rushes to make a deal with one militant group, other extremists such as Daesh continue to kill large numbers of civilians. “A US-Taliban agreement does not end fighting in Afghanistan, and in fact the fighting could get very nasty,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, an analyst at the Brookings Institution.
WHAT DO THE TALIBAN SAY?
Taliban leaders say they are prepared to make a deal, but they hold no sway over Daesh militants, a comparatively small number of fighters including Pakistani operatives and other foreigners who fled the group’s former strongholds in Iraq and Syria.
HOW HAS THE US REACTED?
The most recent US-Taliban talks ended last week without a deal, although the White House is moving ahead with plans to reduce the number of troops in Afghanistan ahead of the 2020 US election. The
State Department condemned what it called a “despicable” attack: “The Afghan people deserve a future free from terror. That is why it is time for all Afghans to join in the #AfghanPeaceProcess and build a united front against the menace of [Daesh].”
WHAT ABOUT THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT?
The Afghan government has not been a party to the talks between the US and the Taliban. The Trump administration is seeking an eventual withdrawal of all US troops, which would leave security entirely in the hands of Afghan forces.
WHAT DO AFGHAN PEOPLE SAY?
“The government has failed to secure our lives. May God protect us,” said Abdul Sattar, 32, who lost six members of his family on Saturday. A seventh died of his injuries, even as the family buried the others.
Like Sattar, many Afghans see little distinction between the Taliban and Daesh. “They are the same dogs that bite the nation whenever they want,” he said.
WHAT’S BEHIND THE SURGE IN VIOLENCE THIS YEAR?
In 2017, Daesh claimed responsibility for an attack on a mosque in a Shiite area that killed more than 50 people. The year before, the group bombed a Hazara-led protest, leaving more than 80 dead. Last year was the deadliest for Afghans with almost 4,000 civilians killed and more than 7,000 wounded — mostly in attacks by Daesh and the Taliban.
This year has seen a surge in deaths and injuries caused by pro-government forces, largely because of US air strikes, the UN has found.
WHAT’S THE EQUATION BETWEEN DAESH AND THE TALIBAN?
Taliban forces have often fought Daesh for territory and resources. But one Afghan security official said that a peace deal could see up to 10 per cent of Taliban fighters defect to Daesh.
The spokesman for the Taliban’s political office, Suhail Shaheen, denied involvement in the attack, prompting Heather Barr of Human Rights Watch to respond on Twitter that the denial “highlights the fact that a US-Taliban deal won’t end attacks on Afghans”.
Graeme Smith, a consultant for the International Crisis Group, said Daesh is fearful of a peace deal because it is “getting hammered on the battlefield” by both US-backed government forces and the Taliban and “does not want to see its two biggest enemies make peace and join forces” against them.
“There’s a potential motive for them to conduct bigger spectacular attacks right now, on the eve of a historic settlement between the US and the Taliban,” he said.