WILL NETANYAHU ACT ON WEST BANK THREAT?
Despite US backing, annexation does not hold a win-win option for Israeli PM. Here’s why
Israel’s indicted prime minister has political backing to turn Palestinian nightmare into reality, but he may also have been using the bogey of annexation as a campaign rallying cry during a drawn-out election cycle |
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been promising for more than a year to annex West Bank land the Palestinians want for a state. With Donald Trump in the White House, he’s now got the backing he needs to turn that pipe dream into reality. However, Netanyahu has to move fast if he wants to be assured of getting this done under the aegis of the US president’s Middle East peace plan.
Then again, he might not really want to, and may have been using annexation as a campaign rallying cry during a drawn-out election cycle. It’s clear to Netanyahu that such an explosive proposition would soon come up against the harsher reality of its consequences, including the risk of re-igniting violence.
What’s at stake?
Israel captured the West Bank from Jordan in the 1967 Middle East war. Netanyahu’s predecessors shied from extending Israeli sovereignty there to avoid the international uproar that would have ensued from what is widely regarded as a violation of an international treaty forbidding annexation of occupied territories.
Today, more than 400,000 Jewish colonists live there among 2.6 million Palestinians who claim the West Bank as the heart of their hoped-for state. In addition, more than 200,000 Jewish colonists are also present in occupied East Jerusalem, which Israel annexed shortly after capturing it, too, from Jordan in 1967, alongside more than 300,000 Palestinians. The Palestinians say annexation of West Bank land would deal an irrevocable blow to their dream of an independent, viable homeland.
What has Netanyahu vowed to do?
Netanyahu has said he’d like to extend Israeli sovereignty over all of the roughly 130 heavily fortified colonies, dozens of satellite outposts, and “other areas important to our security, our heritage, and our future.” Under the Trump plan, that would account for about 30 per cent of the West Bank, leaving the Palestinians with non-contiguous enclaves that would be joined by a system of tunnels and bridges.
While Netanyahu has spoken repeatedly of applying Israeli sovereignty a close ally says what he’d like to do initially is to extend Israeli law to those areas, in place of the military law that applies to both Israelis and Palestinians. Actual annexation of the land would come next.
So how will Netanyahu govern the coalition?
After three deadlocked and divisive elections, the Israeli regime was set to finally swear in a new government yesterday, with Netanyahu securing a historic fifth term in office thanks to a controversial power-sharing deal with rival-turned-partner Gantz. The deal calls for Netanyahu to serve as prime minister for the government’s first 18 months before being replaced by Gantz for the next 18 months.
What does his future partner in government say on annexation?
Gantz hasn’t given a clear statement of where he stands on annexation. But he’s suggested his support hinges on its being carried out in cooperation with Israel’s partners in the Middle East in the interest of regional stability, while avoiding unilateral steps. It’s not clear such cooperation is available.
What do Palestinians say?
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has ordered the formation of a task force to recommend a plan of action against any Israeli annexation move. Annexing territory in the West Bank could bolster Palestinian war crime allegations against Israel at the International Criminal Court, which has said it intends to investigate those claims. All agreements with Israel will be considered null and void should it act on Netanyahu’s pledges, said Azzam Al Ahmad, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s decision-making executive committee. That’s an oft-repeated threat that would in effect mean the dissolution of the Palestinian National Authority.
How would the Palestinian economy be affected?
Palestinian businesses are concerned about investment as Israel’s annexation talk mounts.
Ismat Quzmar, a researcher at the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute, said annexation would constrain space available for work and investment.
Samir Huleileh, a Palestinian businessman and economist, says the export of dates, which account for a big slice of Palestinian sales abroad, may take a beating. Will investors be required to pay taxes to the Israeli government, a prospect that might put off some? No one has said anything to the Palestinians, Huleileh said.
Donor nations may also reevaluate funding to the PNA, while keeping some money flowing to specific projects such as human rights programmes. “What is the logic to continue funding a PNA in a situation where two states is no longer the objective or no longer seen as feasible,” said Hugh Lovatt, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
How would the annexation affect Israel’s economy?
Before the pandemic broke out, Israel’s central bank expected 2020 output to expand around 3 per cent, but by April it was predicting a 5.3 per cent contraction. The annexation plan, if carried out, may lead to even further damage, said analysts, if countries opposed to the move flag their objection by reducing trade.
What will the international reaction be?
The US will support it, but the European Union, some Gulf Arab states, and presumptive US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden have already spoken out against it. “Annexation will not pass unnoticed or, if it proceeds, there will be a reaction,” EU foreign-policy spokesman Peter Stano told reporters in Brussels on May 11. Several member states seek the threat of sanctions to deter annexation, including possibly denying Israel membership in trade agreements, special grants or cooperative ventures, Israel’s Haaretz daily reported. UAE Foreign Minister, Shaikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, said such a move would be illegal and undermine opportunities for peace.
What might encourage Netanyahu to go ahead?
A recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute showed that more than half of Jewish Israelis support annexation of parts of the West Bank, versus 28 per cent who oppose it, meaning Netanyahu wouldn’t have to worry about domestic backlash. His legal woes may also be a consideration. The prime minister has been charged in three graft cases, and may choose to play the annexation card to keep the spotlight off himself and burnish his legacy domestically as he heads to trial later this month.
What might deter him?
The risk of renewed Palestinian violence as well as opposition from Europe, Israel’s largest trade partner. Netanyahu also has to take into account opposition from Jordan, one of the two Arab states to have made peace with Israel. Gantz may also put the brakes on plans.
What about the timing?
The step threatens to undermine cooperation between Israel and the Palestinians to contain coronavirus. “The Palestinian National Authority is trying to cooperate with Israel on curbing the virus despite the occupieroccupied dynamic, and looming annexation makes it much harder,” said Ofer Zalzberg, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group consultancy.
Annexation will not pass unnoticed or, if it proceeds, there will be a reaction.”
Peter Stano | EU foreign-policy spokesman