WILL PRESIDENTIAL POLL BE DELAYED?
The presidential poll must be held on schedule, but mail-in votes could trigger Florida 2000-like chaos and disputes
As the election moves toward the first mostly mail-in voting in November due to the pandemic, it will likely trigger chaos and disputes that will reverberate long after the Election Day |
The Covid-19 pandemic is all set to alter the way US elections are conducted this year as President Donald Trump seeks re-election.
According to analysts, a pandemic-inspired moves toward the first mostly mail-in election in November may solve the public health issue, but the change will likely trigger problems that will reverberate long after Election Day.
That is, if the election happens on time in the first place.
With the US economy being hammered by the pandemic and more than 33 million Americans without jobs, individual states are also wondering just when the situation will return to normal.
What is the situation now?
Both Democrats and Republicans have agreed to postpone fifteen state primaries until June at the very earliest. This postponement is giving rise to speculation that the November election may end up delayed. The pandemic has already led to the cancellation of several campaign rallies.
With in-person polling places closed and absentee balloting processes thrown into doubt, several US politicians have engaged in bitter fights over the electoral process in legislatures and the courts.
When is the election due?
In November, US voters are scheduled to head to the polls to select the next president, much of Congress and thousands of state-government candidates. Under a law dating back to 1845, the US presidential election is slated for the Tuesday after the first Monday of November every four years — November 3 in 2020. It would take an act of Congress to change that.
So could Trump postpone the election?
The prospect of a bipartisan legislative consensus signing off on any delay is unlikely in the extreme, according to the BBC. What’s more, even if the voting day were changed, the US Constitution mandates that a presidential administration only last four years.
Therefore, Trump’s first term will expire at noon on January 20, 2021, one way or another. He might get another four years if he’s re-elected. He could be replaced by Democratic contender Joe Biden if he’s defeated. But either way the clock is ticking down, and a postponed vote won’t stop it.
What happens if the election is delayed?
If there hasn’t been an election before the scheduled inauguration day, the presidential line of succession kicks in. Second up is Vice-President Mike Pence, and given that his term in office also ends on that day, he’s in the same boat as the president. Next in line is the Speaker of the House — currently Democrat Nancy Pelosi — but her two-year term is up at the end of December. The senior-most official eligible for the presidency in such a doomsday scenario would be 86-year-old Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the president pro tem of the Senate. That’s assuming Republicans still control the Senate after a third of its 100 seats are vacated because of their own term expirations.
Isn’t a delay what Jared Kushner was asking for?
Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner raised eyebrows last week by suggesting there was some uncertainty about whether the presidential election would happen in November as scheduled due to the coronavirus pandemic and that he had some role in making that determination. Hours after his remarks to Time magazine generated a strong reaction on social media, Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, issued a clarification, saying he was unaware of and not involved in any “discussions” about changing the date of the 2020 election.
In Kushner’s interview with Time, he said that while it wasn’t his decision to make, he wasn’t certain he could say the election would happen on November 3 if there was a second outbreak of coronavirus in the fall.
How did Biden react to those comments?
Kushner’s comments are particularly fraught because some critics, such as former vice president Joe Biden, were already on high alert for an attempt by Trump to put off the election because of the coronavirus outbreak. He offered an explicit warning to a group of donors last month about the potential for the election to be moved. “Mark my words, I think he is going to try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can’t be held,” Biden said during a virtual fundraiser.
Mark my words, I think he [Trump] is going to try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can’t be held.”
Joe Biden | Democratic presidential candidate
Kushner’s remarks were also met with concern from conservative quarters. “Kushner’s statement reveals amazing ignorance of the Constitution and law,” tweeted Bill Kristol, the neoconservative political commentator and editor at large of The Bulwark. “It reveals startling arrogance in taking for granted he gets to have some say about when the election is held. It also reveals an utter lack of understanding of his very subordinate role in our democracy.”
What has Trump said about the election?
Kushner’s non-committal on the election date is at odds with his father-in-law’s own public position. “The general election will happen on November 3,” Trump said at a news conference last month.
But the president, like he has often said without evidence, has also attacked mail-in voting, claiming that such a practice is “RIPE for FRAUD.” “I think that mail-in voting is a terrible thing,” Trump said last month.
What’s the problem with mail-in voting?
With tens of millions of Americans expected to mail in their ballots for the November 3 election, the US may not know whether Trump or Joe Biden won for days, even weeks. And during those weeks, there will likely be charges of cheating, lawsuits and demands for recounts in a country that prides itself on open, fair and efficient elections.
With no-excuse voting by mail already legal in 34 states, elections experts say the number of mail-in ballots could dramatically increase from the nearly 25 per cent of votes that were cast by mail in 2016, given the public’s ongoing fear of gathering in large groups before the coronavirus is vanquished. That would be the biggest shift in voting since the 25th Amendment gave 18-year-olds the vote in 1971.
What have experts said about it?
Democrats are pressing states to make absentee voting easier, clashing with Republican lawmakers and in some cases suing to try to force the issue.
But experts say even if the laws remain largely unchanged, absentee voting rules are open enough that millions more Americans could vote by mail if they choose. The more serious problem may come when it’s time to count ballots.
How could counting get delayed?
If the US turns largely to voteby-mail, the counting process could trigger unpleasant memories of the 2000 presidential ballot-counting in Florida, when it took more than a month to settle on George W. Bush as the victor over Al Gore, ending with a controversial decision by a divided US Supreme Court. When people cast ballots at polling places, results are typically counted right at poll-closing time, and races are almost always settled on Election Night. But counting mail-in ballots takes longer, especially in states with more generous deadlines and those where many people haven’t participated in absentee voting.
Should the world brace for legal challenges during or after the election?
The recent experience in the Wisconsin primary could serve as a warning for US electoral disruption. Before primary day, Democratic governor Tony Evers and Republicans who control the state legislature engaged in highstakes legal battles, one of which was ultimately decided by the US Supreme Court, over whether the governor had the legal power to postpone the vote until June or extend the absentee balloting deadline.
In Texas, a federal judge issued an order that made fear of contracting the coronavirus a valid reason to request an absentee ballot in November. The state’s requirements for mail-in voting had been some of the most stringent in the nation.
With tens of millions of Americans expected to mail in their ballots for the November 3 general election, the US may not know whether Trump or Joe Biden won for days, even weeks.