US jobless numbers may not tell full story
MORE THAN 40M AMERICANS HAVE NOW LOST THEIR JOBS EVEN AS REOPENINGS REMAIN BUMPY
Reopenings remain bumpy and cases flare up in many states
More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 of 4 US workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the coronavirus pandemic grabbed hold in mid-March, the government reported yesterday, an astounding tally that rivals the bleakest years of the Great Depression.
The latest batch of claims — the 2.1 million people who filed a new jobless claim last week — may not be only a result of fresh layoffs but also evidence that states are working their way through some of the choking backlog. “We’re still catching up,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton, said of the newest claims. “The lags have been long.”
The report marks the eighth week in a row that new jobless claims dipped from the peak of almost 6.9 million — but the level is still far above any other historical highs.
At the same time, overcounting in some places and undercounting in others makes it difficult to precisely measure the number of layoffs caused by the pandemic — and in devising a policy response.
Expanded benefits
Under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance programme, Congress approved an expanded palette of jobless benefits two months ago that included freelancers, selfemployed and gig workers and others who would not normally qualify under state rules.
“When we think about what to do when benefits expire, it would be helpful to know how many people are actually getting them,” said Elizabeth Pancotti, a research assistant at the National Bureau of Economic Research. While the Labour Department reports may be the best source of information, she said, they offer an “incomplete picture.”
Many states, flooded with applicants, were slow to put the pandemic programme into effect. Initially, many were mistakenly told they were ineligible. Others were instructed to apply for state benefits first.
Shelter-in-place orders and business restrictions have been lifting across the country, and some workers have been called back to work.
But the reopenings remain bumpy and incomplete, and flare-ups of the coronavirus continue to disrupt business. On Tuesday, Ford Motor temporarily halted production at the Kansas City assembly plant to deep clean after an employee tested positive for the virus.
The system is most likely missing millions of laid-off workers. Even now, three states have not put the pandemic unemployment insurance program into effect, and several others have yet to report any claims. Thirteen states have not started another federal emergency relief programme.