When can we hug, fly again without fear?
In a survey of 511 epidemiologists, a majority said it will take them more than a year to resume normal activities while some said they will never shake hands in future
In a survey of 511 epidemiologists, a majority said it will take them more than a year
Many epidemiologists are already comfortable going to the doctor, socialising with small groups outside or bringing in mail, despite the coronavirus. But unless there’s an effective vaccine or treatment first, it will be more than a year before many say they will be willing to go to concerts, sporting events or religious services. And some may never greet people with hugs or handshakes again.
These are the personal opinions of a group of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who were asked by The New York Times when they expect to resume 20 activities of daily life, assuming that the pandemic and the public health response to it unfold as they expect.
Their answers are not guidelines for the public and incorporate respondents’ individual life circumstances, risk tolerance and expectations about when there will be widespread testing, contact tracing, treatment and vaccination for Covid-19. They said it’s these things that will determine their actions, because the virus sets the timeline.
“The answers have nothing to do with calendar time,” said Kristi McClamroch of the University at Albany.
Need for outdoor activities
Still, as policymakers lift restrictions and protests break out nationwide over police brutality, epidemiologists must make their own decisions about what they will do, despite the uncertainty — just like everyone else. They mostly agreed that outdoor activities and small groups were safer than being indoors or in a crowd, and that masks would be necessary for a long time.
“Fresh air, sun, socialisation and a healthy activity will be just as important for my mental health as my physical well-being,” said Anala Gossai, a scientist at Flatiron Health, a health technology firm, who said she would socialise outdoors this summer.
Some said they would refrain from nearly all of the 20 activities until a vaccine for the virus had been widely distributed. Others said they would wait for a vaccine to do the indoor activities on the list.
Office can wait
“As much as I hate working at home, I think that working in a shared indoor space is the most dangerous thing we do,” said Sally Picciotto of the University of California, Berkeley, one of the 18 per cent of respondents who said they expected to wait at least a year before returning to the office.
The responses were collected the last week of May, before the death of George Floyd in police custody spurred protests across the country. These mass gatherings are likely to cause a rise in cases, some epidemiologists said.
“There’s a risk, and it’s hitting the communities hit hardest by the pandemic, and it’s heartbreaking,” said Andrew Rowland of the University of New Mexico.
Points of disagreement
For some of the activities, there was significant disagreement. Some said hair salons were relatively safe — they aren’t usually crowded and have hygiene requirements — while others said a haircut had a high risk because of the face-to-face contact. Fortyone per cent would go now or this summer, but 19 per cent plan to wait at least a year. One-third said they would attend a dinner party at a friend’s home this summer (many specified outdoors with appropriate distancing), while one-fifth said they would wait more than a year, potentially until there was a vaccine.
Slogan of the time
Melissa Sharp, who recently received her doctorate, will soon fly to Europe to begin a fellowship. But for now, while she is staying in Florida with family, including high-risk relatives, she has been extraordinarily careful, “cocooning” and avoiding activities that she considers less risky than flying.
One of her quarantine hobbies, she said, has been epidemiology-inspired needlepoint: “It says, ‘Well, it depends,’ because that’s really our slogan.”
The new normal
Many epidemiologists said they may never greet people the same way again. Forty-two per cent of the sample said they would not hug or shake hands for more than a year, and 6 per cent said they would never do either again. “The worst casualty of the epidemic,” said Eduardo Franco of McGill University in Montreal, is the “loss of human contact.”
Surveys of ordinary Americans show that many people without epidemiology training also think it will be months or longer before many common activities can become routine again. A recent survey from Morning Consult found that more than a quarter of Americans would not visit a shopping mall for more than six months, and around a third would not go to a gym, movie or concert.
Masks to stay
One thing the epidemiologists seemed to agree on was that even when they return to normal activities, they will do them differently for a long time, like socialising with friends outside or attending worship services online. A majority said it would be more than a year before they stopped routinely wearing a mask outside their homes.
People often ask when things will return to normal, said T. Christopher Bond, an associate director at Bristol Myers Squibb. “At first I told them: ‘The world has changed and will be different for a long time. This is the crisis of our lifetime and we need to embrace it,’” he said. “But that depressed them. So now I say, ‘Well, we know more every day.’”
One thing the epidemiologists agreed on was that even when they return to normal activities, they will do them differently for a long time, like socialising with friends outside or attending worship services online.