New battle lines being drawn in Pakistan

The masks have slipped as Sharif makes a spectacular attack against army chief

From afar it may look like a perfect pageant of the din of democracy: Opposition leaders speaking to sizeable crowds and a miffed government scoffing at them for being sour losers but allowing themto be heard. But from up close, the last week’s show of strength by the Pakistan Democratic Movement ( PDM), an eclectic alliance formed to oust the Imran government, in the Industrial city of Gujranwala, has expanded into a bruising political contest by bringing the army at the centre of it.

After the event — which took place amid local administration arresting and jailing political workers and placing hurdles on the main roads to prevent the public from reaching the venue — the talk of the town is the generals’ extreme anger at what got said in the speeches and speculation about their fiery reaction. Of particular concern for the army is the direct linkages that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the lead man of the Pakistan Muslim League-N, has drawn between the deteriorating health of the national economy and a deepening political crisis to the actions of the army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa. He accused him of chicanery in the 2018 elections to install the Imran government in power and of wreaking havoc on the nation.

In making these accusations Sharif hasn’t said anything that you wouldn’t hear in Pakistan. Fragments of the narrative float around freely everywhere — in the drawing rooms, at tea stalls, in the courts, in TV talk shows and on social media. Sharif himself has lately taken up the theme consistently in his media statements. Other opposition parties, too, often train their guns towards the men- behind- Imran. But much of this criticism has remained faceless and nameless.

Crossing the Rubicon

In Gujranwala Sharif crossed the Rubicon. He named not one but two elephants in the room — General Qamar Bajwa and General Faiz Hameed. Not only that, he threw boulders at him. “You Mr Qamar Bajwa forced our fully functioning government out of power and sacrificed the country and the nation at the altar of your ambitions. You bought and sold loyalties of the parliamentarians. You forced judges to ink verdicts …” He also held the army chief responsible for the economic misery that has followed his ouster. He delivered the rest of the punches against the Director General of the ISI, General Faiz Hameed.

TV channels, which were live from the location, did not telecast his speech. All newspapers the next morning paraphrased him in a way that the reader couldn’t tell whether it was a generic outburst meant to be fuzzy or awell- directed and fully loaded hit in the face, which it was. But the two minute- plus video clip has circulated like crazy since its release making all censorship actions redundant. It is now widely available.

So far the army’s media wing has not responded to this blast from London, where Sharif is residing on account of his medical condition. But that is immaterial. The directness of the attack is bound to have more than just ruffled feathers. It has after all called out the head of armed forces and the DG ISI on highly inflammable political matters. It has placed the two men in direct clash with an Opposition that is drawn from all four provinces of the country and whose other leaders do not disagree with Sharif’s stance even though they are yet to throw caution to the wind.

Explosive proposition

Put differently, the accusations are not one man’s lament; nor one party’s stratagem. These have come from a national platform and have been stated in front hundreds of thousands of people. That makes them an explosive proposition. Generals have been critiqued and painted in villainous colours before, but only when they had taken over power or had retired from service. To frame and name those holding central positions is exceptional. General Bajwa in the first year of his second three- year term. General Faiz has many more years ahead of him.

This controversy could peter out, like most controversies do in Pakistan, if this was a oneoff salvo. But the problem is that the PDM has many more similar gatherings planned across the country where the line of attack will be repeated. This means that letting the charge go un- responded is not an option for the army. Sharif’s statements have gone viral already and these stick too because his narrative is not packaged as a personal grievance. It is marketed for a wider audience that might not have sympathy for him but find his argument relatable about economic regression eating into the vitals of national life.

Recent forecasts about the state of the economy are nothing but bad news. The International Monetary Fund’s assessment puts next year’s GDP growth at 1 per cent. The previous year itwas 0.47 per cent; the year before that 1.9 per cent. In 2017, Nawaz Sharif left the office with growth figures of 5.6. According to the IMF Pakistan will come close to 5% growth in year 2025 barring upheavals and setbacks. This makes the country the worst performing economy in the South Asian region behind even war- torn Afghanistan.

So far millions of jobs have been lost as businesses contract and the IMF loan arrangement piles on misery upon a hapless population through excessive taxes, removal or reduction of gas, electricity and food subsidies. What gets said by the opposition, in these circumstances, echoes across the country.