Festivals spawn fears of virus surge, could spoil hard- won gains
CASCADE OF NEW INFECTIONS COULD SPOIL HARD- WON GAINS, WARN HEALTH EXPERTS
If we don’t avoid socialising during the upcoming festival season, I fear that we will be back to where we started.”
Just weeks after India fully opened up from a harsh lockdown and began to modestly turn a corner by cutting new coronavirus infections by near half, a Hindu festival season is raising fears that a fresh surge could spoil the hard- won gains.
“I’d be very worried about what we are going to see in India,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health and a leading infectious disease expert. The festivals draw tens and thousands of people, packed together shoulder- toshoulder in temples, shopping districts and family gatherings, leading to concerns among health experts who warn of a whole new cascade of infections, further testing and straining India’s battered health care system.
The Hindu festival season is traditionally laced with an unmatched fanfare and extravaganza, with socialising being the hallmark of the celebration. But this year’s festivities have started on apale note.
DrTJacobJohn | Retired virologist
This is amatter of faith. I know that there are virus risks [ participating in festival rituals], but we can’t make the gods angry.”
Sumit Chatterjee | New Delhi resident
Muted celebrations
So far, the colourful and elaborate rituals for Durga Puja and Dussehra have been scaled down. The celebrations, bereft of all the grandiose, have been muted. The towering displays of religious sculptures are rare, and at many places, prayers have gone virtual, with organisers livestreaming the sessions for the devotees.
In many states, police barricades have been erected around the usually buzzing places of worship to avoid large gatherings.
Flirting with danger
But this could change. Nearly one billion Indians will soon celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of light, and the country’s biggest. Socialising is key part of the most highly anticipated event of the year, with malls and markets buzzing with shoppers. It also traditionally brings in a massive increase in consumer spending across India.
Even though the government is expecting the festival to help resuscitate the ailing economy, it is also worried about people packing together, foregoing social distancing and masks.
PM warns of laxity
Such concerns prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address the nation in a televised speech earlier this week, warning people of “any laxity” during the festive season that “could strain India’s health system.”’
India is second to the United States with the largest coronavirus outbreak. Last month, the country hit a peak of nearly 100,000 cases in a single day, but since then daily infections have fallen by about half and deaths by about a third.
Some experts say the decline in cases suggests the virus may have reached a plateau but others question the testing methods. India’s testing rate has remained constant but it is relying on antigen tests, which are faster but less accurate than traditional RT- PCR tests.
Even as the reasons behind the decline are not fully clear, India is still clocking more than 50,000 cases a day, making any new surge all the more important.
These fears stem largely from India’s initial success story — until it wasn’t.
In June, the southern coastal state of Kerala was cheered for flattening the curve, generating worldwide appreciation. But in a stunning reversal, it now fares as the second- worst state in active coronavirus cases in the country.
Lessons from Kerala
Kerala’s story has alarmed health experts who fear similar problems in the run up to Diwali that could reverse the gains.
“If we don’t avoid socialising during the upcoming festival season, I fear we will be back to where we started,”
said Dr. T Jacob John, a retired virologist. However, for hundreds of thousands of faithful, scaled- down celebrations aren’t bringing home festival cheer and the urge to step out is only growing.
Sumit Chatterjee’s family has avoided outdoor gathering for months. But now they are planning to forego the restraint and take part in a ritual. This is a matter of faith,” said the 64- year- old resident of New Delhi. “I know there are risks but we can’t make the gods angry.”