It’s advantage Aoun as Hariri quits, but Lebanon pays the price
Bassil’s presidential ambitions will scuttle any cabinet formation
When Sa’ad Hariri presented President Michel Aoun with his 24-minister cabinet lineup on Wednesday, he knew that it would be rejected as he had refused to accommodate Aoun’s requests.
Among other things, the Lebanese president had insisted that he and his son-in-law and political heir, Gibran Bassil, ne given the right to name all Christian ministers. He also demanded that sensitive portfolios like foreign affairs, defence, and interior, be granted to his Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).
It was the third of three lists presented to Aoun since March 2021. On Thursday, Hariri told reporters: “We proposed that the president take more time to think about the proposal and Aoun said that it looks like we’re not going to agree. For that reason I have stepped down from forming the government. God help this country.”
What’s at stake?
Aoun, whose presidency ends in October 2022, was never too enthusiastic about a Hariri comeback, certain that he would never support Bassil’s bid for president.
Hariri had also promised early parliamentary elections or conduct the official one on time
in May 2022. Bassil dreaded the idea, fearing that he would lose the parliamentary majority of 29 seats that he currently enjoys within the Lebanese Chamber.
Aoun will now have to call for consultations with parliamentary blocs to select a replacement to Hariri. The biggest bloc (29 MPs) is held by his own Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).
Second-in-line is Hariri’s Future Movement, which controls 21 MPs, followed by the bloc of Speaker Nabih Berri (17 MPs). Hariri’s bloc will reject any premier recommended by the FPM, and so would Berri.
Prime minister hopefuls
According to norm the premiership in Lebanon goes to a Sunni, something agreed upon verbally since 1943. Among the candidates are Fouad Makhzoumi, a Beirut tycoon who entered parliament for the very first time three years ago.
He is close to the Aounists, who would not mind officially naming him for premier. Another candidate on Bassil’s list is Mustapha Adib, Lebanon’s ambassador to Germany, who was picked for the job last year, but failed to come up with a cabinet.
If the Hariri MPs take part in consultations, they are likely to name Nawaf Salam, who served as Lebanon’s ambassador to the UN and at The Hague. However, Hezbollah considers him too close to the US and would never support his candidacy.
Another strong contender is former PM Najib Mikati, who is close to both Saudi Arabia and the US, acceptable to Iran and Hezbollah, and widely respected among Sunnis. Aoun does not favor him because he would be a powerful prime minister.
If the security situation gets worse, it would give Aoun a pretext to even call off parliamentary elections next May. That would mean keeping the current chamber in full control, with a majority willing to support Bassil’s presidential ambition.