UAE central bank raises GDP forecast

2022 GROWTH EXPECTED TO BE 7.6% COMPARED TO 6.5% FORECAST EARLIER

The UAE central bank expects real gross domestic product growth of 7.6 per cent this year, an upward revision of more than a percentage point from 6.5 per cent earlier, while lowering expectations for growth next year, state news agency WAM said yesterday.

The Central Bank attributed the increase in growth forecast to the strong performance of some non-oil sectors, including tourism, hospitality, real estate, transportation and manufacturing.

In its quarterly review report for the third quarter of this year, the bank expected non-oil GDP to grow by 6.1 per cent in 2022, compared to 4.3 per cent in its previous estimates, while the oil GDP is expected to grow by 11 per cent in 2022. The report says that real GDP has continued to grow at a strong pace in the third quarter after a strong increase in the first half of the year, driven by an increase in oil production.

This was the result of the removal of most Covid-related curbs, in addition to the recovery

in global travel and tourism sector, the boom in the real estate and construction sectors, the expansion of manufacturing activities, as well as global events.

2023 forecasts

The report indicated that the real GDP growth forecasts in 2023 have been revised to 3.9 per cent, with non-oil GDP expected to grow by 4.2 per cent and non-oil GDP expected to grow by 3 per cent.

Government revenues increased year-on-year by 46.7 per cent in the first half of this year to Dh305.6 billion as a result of the increase in taxes and social contributions.

The current year-on-year spending increased by 6.1 per cent in the first half of this year to Dh180.1 billion compared to a growth of five per cent during the same period last year.