India election 2024: Ball in Rahul’s court
Congress scion needs to show leadership and turn his mass appeal into votes for party
When Rahul Gandhi resigned from the Congress president’s post in 2019, he demanded a non-Gandhi to be party president. He had his way with a non-Gandhi president in Mallikarjun Kharge, giving Rahul power without responsibility. He can now take credit for success and blame Kharge for failure. With Kharge’s elevation, the so-called ‘G23’ rebel grouping is all but dead.
It’s not as if there is any pretence in the Congress that Rahul is not their leader, because the party’s biggest mass contact programme in decades, the Bharat Jodo Yatra, was led by him. We are enthusiastically told by Congress supporters that the Yatra has made Rahul a popular mass leader and revived the party’s fortunes. This is partially true, because his image has improved for the moment, at least among non-BJP voters. This has helped him silence anxious critics within the party.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity ratings remain far ahead of Rahul’s. At the same time, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka have shown that the standard rules of ‘anti-incumbency’ still apply to Indian politics. Like 2004 or 2014 or 2018, it remains the case that ruling parties can be defeated in elections by tapping into economic discontent. Inequality has also increased in post-Covid India.
In December 2023, the Bhartiya Janata Party is not going to have a cakewalk in the assembly elections of Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The defeats in Himachal and Karnataka, and before that in West Bengal and Delhi, and the challenges mounted by regional parties in Bihar and Maharashtra, all of these have blunted the BJP’s image of invincibility.
There is by now ample evidence that the BJP can be defeated despite having an edge in media capture, social media reach, party organisation, and the use of central agencies. All of this suggests that the road ahead for Rahul is clear. He should have no excuses now.
At least 100 seats?
Nobody expects Rahul to be prime minister a year from now. The question is one of the seats and vote share. Can he show even incremental improvement? Can he take back the family pocket borough of Amethi?
The Congress party’s vote-share remained the same — around 19 per cent — in 2014 and 2019. Its seats increased from 44 to 52 in a legislature of 543. On a plurality of Lok Sabha seats, the contest even today is BJP versus Congress. The Aam Aadmi Party, and third front formation or any new entrants haven’t really taken off.
This is Rahul’s best opportunity as well as his last chance. It’s now or never. In 2024, he will have to demonstrate that his leadership can bring votes if not victory.
If Rahul can’t even take the party to 100-plus seats in 2019, the Priyanka lao Congress bachao (bring Priyanka, save Congress) lobby in the party is going to grow louder. Over-the-top photo ops between the siblings won’t be enough to send the party rank and file the message of unity. If Rahul can’t deliver in 2024, even his own party will give up on him for good. The ball is in his court.