Will Kejriwal’s party survive crisis?
For someone who started as an anti-corruption crusader, the reversal of fortunes could not be more incongruous, if not tragic
Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest on March 21 expectedly made headlines because he is the serving chief minister of Delhi state, which is India’s capital.
That an incumbent CM would be imprisoned in a jail complex under his own charge is supremely ironic. But for him to continue to run the administration from prison is unprecedented. His continued incarceration is no longer headline grabbing. It has become another routine matter in India’s gargantuan and, at times, notoriously tardy legal system.
The truth is that the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) under which Kejriwal has been arrested is draconian. It shifts the burden of proof from the prosecution to the accused. Meant for money launderers, drug cartels, crime syndicates, and other hardened offenders, the PMLA has increasingly been used on opposition political parties by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Since 2014, there has been a fourfold increase in cases filed by the the Enforcement Directorate (ED) against opposition leaders. Of all those targeted from the political class, 95 per cent belong to the opposition.
According to information furnished to Parliament, since 2011, the ED conducted 1,569 investigations and carried out 1,700 raids. Of these, only nine resulted in convictions.
When it comes to Kejriwal, no charges have been filed so far. Whether he is convicted remains to be seen. But the process is usually the punishment when the wheels of the law turn as slowly as they do in India. Kejriwal is behind the bars when the country is about to vote in the 2024 general elections.
For someone who began his career as an anti-corruption crusader, the reversal of fortunes could not be more incongruous, if not tragic. Even if Kejriwal is set free for lack of evidence, his — and I dare say his party’s — reputation is tarnished forever. This is not entirely surprising, however. No one in politics is expected to be entirely honest these days.
Will Kejriwal and his party survive the current crisis?
The story of AAP has been one of continuous attrition from its very inception. It has lost several key leaders and members. This erosion, bordering on disintegration, is more evident just now than ever before.
Yet, I would wager that gleeful or sorrowful pronouncements of the doom and death of AAP are premature. Both Kejriwal and AAP will survive, even if considerably weakened or crippled.
Kejriwal himself, as well as his key cabinet members, have shown enormous resilience and persistence. Their support base, not only in the electorate, but also in wider international circles, cannot be wished away.
What is more, Kejriwal is also a skillful political operator, next only to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He will not give up or buckle down without a tough fight. At present, much more than legal, this fight is political, with the future of Kejriwal and AAP dependent as much on the results of the Lok Sabha polls as on what happens in the Delhi High Court.