EU economies end Q1 on sour note
British PMI stages only modest recovery from February’s three-year low
london — Europe’s major economies ended the first quarter on a sour note, with lacklustre growth in nearly all key business surveys, as jitters about a global slowdown and fears Britons may vote to leave the European Union weighed on demand.
The latest Purchasing Managers Indexes will make glum reading for European Central Bank policymakers, coming just weeks after they unleashed a bold easing package in their latest attempt to spur growth and inflation in the currency bloc.
So far there is scant evidence the stimulus has had much effect and they will be particularly concerned by survey evidence showing companies cut prices again last month.
“It really dents hopes that the weakness we saw in January and February is just related to temporary concerns about the global economy. There is something more fundamental going on,” said Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics.
“Without ECB stimulus I suspect that things would have been a lot worse but it certainly is evidence that we are still in a deflationary environment in the euro zone. There is a real risk going forward that households start to put off purchases.”
The ECB targets inflation just below two per cent, but flash data showed last week it was -0.1 per cent in March. Producer prices fell more than expected in February and the pace of their monthly decline increased, excluding volatile energy prices.
There are few signs the latest round of stimulus has had much impact on growth either. Markit’s final composite PMI for the bloc, seen as a good guide to growth, barely im- proved on February’s 13-month low of 53.0, nudging up to 53.1.
That was above the 50-mark that divides growth from contraction but down from an earlier flash estimate of 53.7, pointing to first quarter growth of 0.3 per cent, Markit said, weaker than the 0.4 per cent prediction in a March Reuters poll.
Across the channel in Britain, which doesn’t use the euro, its PMI recovered only slightly last month after reaching its lowest in nearly three years in February.
Markit said the reading pointed to first quarter growth of 0.4 per cent, in line with the latest Reuters poll, but below the 0.6 per cent growth recorded in the previous three months.
Britain will hold a referendum on whether to leave the EU on June 23. A poll of businesses on Monday showed the possibility of a vote in favour of leaving was causing companies to put investment plans on hold. Investors are also concerned about a hard landing in China, which would send shockwaves around the world. New business growth also decelerated, and the sub-index fell to a 14-month low of 52.7 from February’s 53.4.
France’s composite PMI, which includes both services and manufacturing, only rose to the breakeven 50 mark while Germany’s suggested the slowest pace of growth in eight months in March.
The fall in the German index comes after official data earlier on Tuesday showed industrial orders unexpectedly dropped 1.2 per cent in February due to weaker foreign demand. They had been expected to rise 0.2 per cent.
“Today’s weak new-order reading to some extent exaggerates the actual situation in the manufacturing industry,” said Thomas Strobel at UniCredit.
In more upbeat news, Spain’s services industry, worth around half the country’s economic output, expanded in March at its fastest pace since November.
Official data showed eurozone retail sales rose 0.2 per cent in February, beating expectations for no change.