Rupee slips near record low as RBI mulls intervention
mumbai — The rupee’s slide toward a record low, amid $2.8 billion in outflows from Indian stocks and bonds, is prompting speculation the central bank will step up intervention to stem losses.
With a Federal Reserve interestrate increase next month all but a certainty for bond traders, the rupee has slumped 2.6 per cent in November, the most in 15 months. At 68.5650 per dollar (18.66 per UAE dirham), the currency is within 0.4 per cent of the unprecedented 68.845 reached in 2013.
The Reserve Bank of India has probably sold dollars via state-run banks on at least four occasions in less than a fortnight, according to information from traders who asked not to be named.
“The RBI has been supplying dollars almost on a daily basis,” said Rohan Lasrado, Mumbaibased head of foreign-exchange trading at RBL Bank Ltd. “We are seeing outflows from the equity and debt markets, that is putting pressure on the rupee, along with the dollar strength. I strongly feel they will continue intervening.”
India’s central bank has maintained that it doesn’t target a specific rupee level and intervenes only to curb undue volatility in the currency market. The RBI’s increased presence comes as the government’s clampdown on unaccounted wealth floods the nation’s banking system with cash, while foreign investors withdraw money from local stocks and bonds. An e-mail sent to RBI spokeswoman Alpana Killawala didn’t get a response.
Overseas holdings of Indian government and corporate bonds have plunged by 77.2 billion rupees ($1.1 billion) in November, set for the biggest decline since February, National Securities Depository Ltd data compiled by Bloomberg show. Global funds have withdrawn a net $1.7 billion from local shares this month. The rupee’s previous record low in August 2013 came after the Fed’s signal to end its unprecedented bond purchases spurred an exodus from emerging markets like India.
Its slide this year has tripped fewer alarms as Asia’s third-largest economy has since been overhauled, with policy makers succeeding in narrowing the currentaccount deficit, slowing inflation and building a war chest of foreignexchange reserves.
The Indian currency’s 2.6 per cent November decline compares with a 5.6 per cent loss for Malaysia’s ringgit, the worst in Asia, and a 3.2 per cent drop in Indonesia’s rupiah. Taiwan’s dollar has fallen one per cent, the least in the region, while China’s yuan has weakened 1.8 per cent. Odds for a rate increase at the US central bank’s December 13-14 meeting have reached 100 per cent.
“The RBI’s efforts seem to be relatively successful given that the rupee is still the median performer in Asia,” said Julian Wee, a senior market strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd, the second-best rupee forecaste. “The RBI will probably intervene as needed to keep the rupee in line with the regional moves. We feel India’s strong growth prospects, smaller fiscal and current-account deficits, and the rupee’s high carry will make it a relative outperformer in Asia.”
India boasts of the fastest expansion among the world’s major economies. The nation’s currentaccount deficit was $0.3 billion for the April-June quarter, compared with $21.8 billion in the same period in 2013. Foreign-exchange reserves surged to a record $372 billion at the end of September. The hoard has fallen to about $367 billion as of November 11, another sign for some investors that the central bank is supporting the rupee. The Indian currency weakened 0.5 per cent on Wednesday, falling for the eighth time in nine days. — Bloomberg