Brazil and Russia lead rare year of EM gains

london — Remarkable turnarounds in Brazil and Russia in 2016 gave many emerging market assets their first year of positive returns since 2012, on the back of a bounce in oil and commodity prices.

Although some of the gains have been capped by Donald Trump’s US election win, Brazilian stocks rose almost 60 per cent in dollar terms, to be the best performing major equity market, while the real gained 20 per cent, racing neck-and-neck with the rouble for the top currency spot.

While MSCI’s closely followed 23-country index of emerging market equities is up more than seven per cent, the commodity rebound, has meant Latin America, especially Peru and Colombia, have done particularly well.

Hungarian stocks have been eastern Europe’s best performers for a third successive year and Thailand topped Asia with an 18-per cent rise.

On dollar bond markets, default-threatened Venezuela returned 52 per cent, outdoing nine per cent gains on the underlying sovereign debt index.

“We have seen the recovery in commodity prices, the understanding that China can take pretty aggressive steps to stimulate growth in whichever way it feels is appropriate and we have a had a very accommodative global rates environment,” Aberdeen Asset Management investment manager Andrew Stanners said.

“Even the most vulnerable credits like Venezuela that have been hanging on by their fingernails have been able to find enough room to survive.”

Sovereign debt in emerging and hard currencies has delivered returns of more than nine per cent, versus zero on US Treasuries.

Emerging market corporate debt has done even better, returning almost 18 per cent.

The recovery has been all the more surprising, given emerging markets’ worst-ever start to the year in January, when oil prices hit 12-year lows and fears flared that China was heading for a currency crisis. Some of those worries remain: the yuan has fallen almost seven per cent against the dollar for its worst year since 1994, and Chinese mainland shares — star performers last year — have lost 18 per cent. But by spring, most emerging markets appeared to have shrugged off that rocky January.

And then came Donald Trump. Mexico’s peso, already struggling due to domestic worries, was pounded by Trump’s ascent and eventual election win based on campaign threats to scrap trade deals and build a wall on the US-Mexican border to cut immigration. —

60% rise in Brazilian stocks in dollar terms