A lot depends on mood swing of voters in Uttar Pradesh

lucknow — A lot depends on the mood swing of the voters in Uttar Pradesh as even a small change in their mind can tilt the scale for or against a candidate or party, going by the poll data of recent years.

As the state is witnessing a razor sharp contest this time between the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine, Bharatiya Janata Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, even minor changes in the vote share will translate into huge shifts in a number of seats to make or mar the electoral prospect of a party or alliance.

A cursory look at the data of the Assembly and Parliamentary elections in recent years shows that in 2007, the BSP won just over 30 per cent of the votes, the SP a little over 26 pc, the BJP 17 pc and the Congress about 8.5 pc.

But, five years later, though the SP garnered just three more percentage points, it translated into a windfall for the party whose tally in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly shot up from 97 to best ever 224 to put the party filly in saddle with a thumping majority.

BSP’s vote share in 2012 fell by 4.5 percentage points compared to 2007, but the loss was immense in terms of seats as the party’s tally nosedived from 206 to 80.

In the 2009 Parliamentary polls, the BSP won 20 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh with a vote share of 27.42 per cent, the Congress got 21 seats with a vote share of 18.25 per cent, the BJP bagged 10 seats with 17.5 per cent votes and the SP pocketed 23 seats with 23.26 per cent votes.

The political skyline in the state saw dramatic changes during the 2014 Parliamentary election when BJP’s vote share of 42.6 per cent fetched the saffron party the lion’s share of 71 out of 80 Parliamentary seats — almost 90 per cent of the constituencies up for grabs.

A detailed look at the segmentwise performance of the BJP shows the party was ahead of its rivals in 80 per cent of the 403 Assembly segments. On the other hand, the SP had to be content with leads in just 42 assembly segments, while the BSP saw a dismal performance by remaining ahead in only nine segments. Political analysts say if the BJP drops 10 percentage points from its 2014 vote share, it can still emerge as the largest party and even touch the magic mark of 202 in the 403-member House for a simple majority.

They say that with a 32-per cent vote share, the BJP would still be ahead of what the BSP had polled in 2007 or the SP in 2012.

Smaller outfits, like Apna Dal, with which the BJP forged an alliance before the 2014 Parliamentary polls, paid dividends as Anupriya Patel’s party won two seats, taking the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) tally to 73 in the state.

Referring to SP’s alliance with the Congress, analysts say the Congress, with its 7-9 per cent vote share in the last few elections, could help the ruling party to a great extent.

As smaller parties and castes and sub-castes play a crucial role in deciding the fate of a candidate or party, none is leaving any stone unturned to woo them to reap a bumper electoral harvest.