Oil up from four-month lows, inventories curb recovery
london — Oil prices climbed off four-month lows on Thursday but the recovery was cautious with investors fretting that Opec-led supply cuts were not yet reducing record US crude inventories.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, was trading at $50.84 a barrel by 0915GMT, up 20 cents on the day and rebounding from Wednesday’s slide to $49.71, it lowest level since November 30 when Opec announced plans to cut output. US light crude was up 20 cents at $48.24.
Brent remains well below this
We see a rebound to the high $50 and $60 range in Q2 as inventories draw and the market readies for the peak driving and demand season Barclays report
year’s high above $58, hit shortly after January 1 when the deal between the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-Opec states to curb supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) came into effect.
Global stockpiles have continued rising since then. On Wednesday, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed US inventories jumped by a biggerthan-expected five million barrels last week to 533.1 million.
While Opec has broadly met its commitments to reduce output, non-Opec producers have yet to fully deliver on pledged cuts and US shale oil producers have been pumping more oil after crude prices recovered from last year’s drop below $30.
Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader, said Opec was “underwriting the investment plans and returns of their competition in US shale oil”.
He said oil prices could fall further due to US output and a lack of compliance by some producers who said they would cut.
London-based Barclays bank offered a more upbeat assessment, saying the latest oil price weakness would not last into the second quarter. The bank forecast a modest recovery.
“We see a rebound to the high $50 and $60 range in Q2 as inventories draw and the market readies for the peak driving and demand season,” the bank wrote in a note to clients.
It said inventories held by industrialised nations would be eroded by the end of the second quarter, sliding to Opec’s target level of the five-year average. — Reuters